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A Flat Day Is A Good Day.
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR
Yimin Xu
June 23, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
The weekend development in the Middle East has not yet impacted the pre-market today. Equities, yields, gold, and even oil are flat during European hours. Bitcoin has clawed back above $100k this morning.
A lot could happen after the market-open, but so far, the underlying strength of the latest bull market remains strong.
If you are looking for our Systematic Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA (free), PLTR (free).
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. YXI 4-3-2-1 Framework LIVE
Our proprietary 4-3-2-1 framework helps us assess the bullishness of each risk asset on a daily basis, through a combined approach of machine-learning, technical analysis, valuation, and seasonality.
We assign a score to each aspect of this framework, valuing each asset out of 10. The only subjective part of this framework is technical analysis, which contribute towards up to 30% of the score.
We are providing today’s score free for everyone, but they will be reserved for our premium subscribers tomorrow. For the premium subscribers today, we will be breaking down Bitcoin’s score in full, whose “valuation” score looks a little different to equities.
Ticker | YXI Signal | Technical | Valuation | Seasonality | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
QQQ | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
BTC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
AAPL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
AMZN | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
GOOGL | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
META | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
MSFT | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
NVDA | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
TSLA | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Today, our framework determines that NVDA is the best opportunity, scoring 8 out of 10. Correspondingly, the framework is much more neutral towards TSLA and QQQ.
Please see the article or the video below for how our framework works.
2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)
SPDW is updated every Monday.
SPY’s technical analysis received a 2 out of 3 because 1) its medium term trend points upwards, 2) its short-term trend is flat lining, but 3) it hasn’t quite reached the key 1.382 level for wave (iii), the bottom of the green box, or the resistance line above.
The weekend conflict has seen a muted reaction in the pre-market. SPY continues in a tight range since the beginning of June.
QQQ receives just 1 point in the technicals because 1) it maintains a medium-term uptrend, but 2) it has been flat lining in the short-term, and 3) it has hit the key wave (iii) target level as well as the trend line resistance.
That makes my framework neutral towards QQQ, with 5 points - 4 from the YXI signals, and 1 from technical analysis.
SPDW has turned down from the resistance trend line, but remains near the all time high.
SPY/ SPDW (https://www.tradingview.com/x/P2qvZmot/)
SPY / SPDW ratio is still near the lows of the long-term upward channel.
3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
07/30/25 | 4.33 | 4.28 | -0.05 |
09/17/25 | 4.28 | 4.13 | -0.15 |
11/05/25 | 4.13 | 3.98 | -0.15 |
12/17/25 | 3.98 | 3.83 | -0.15 |
01/28/26 | 3.83 | 3.73 | -0.1 |
03/18/26 | 3.73 | 3.63 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.63 | 3.53 | -0.1 |
06/17/26 | 3.53 | 3.43 | -0.1 |
The market is pricing in 3-4 cuts before July 2026.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
4. Summary Of Today’s YXI Signals
SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR
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