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- A Positive H1 Tends To See A Bullish H2 (FREE)
A Positive H1 Tends To See A Bullish H2 (FREE)
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR
Yimin Xu
July 01, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
The first day of a new quarter and the second half of the year represents a fresh start.
To whatever that happened in Q1 or Q2 - the tonne of mistakes we made - now is the chance to mentally leave them behind. We apply the learnings to the new quarter and move forward with greater resilience, wisdom, and conviction.
If you missed the latest rally in Q2, history suggests there are greater gains ahead in the year, and we will go through them today.
Our July 4th Sale has begun - you can benefit from our Premium plans with 35% off today.
Premium subscriptions unlock all of our ML-model signals, our proprietary ratings for each risk asset, and our daily macro notes covering equities, oil, rates, crypto, Gold, Mag-7s, SOXX and PLTR.
If you are looking for our Systematic Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA (free), PLTR (free).
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. What To Expect In H2
SPY Performance YTD
After a tumultuous 6 months, SPY closed the first half of the year up 5.4%. If you took a sabbatical from markets at the beginning of the year and just got back to the desk, you might well be very pleased with the market progress.
The YTD returns make 2025 look like a distinctly average year, even though it is anything but.
SPY H2 vs H1
Generally, positive returns in H1 correlate with positive returns in H2. In all of the years where SPY delivered at least 5% returns in H1, only two of them showed a negative H2 (2007, 2011). Half of them showed 10% or better H2 returns.
SPY Q2 vs Q3 Returns
Out of the 21 years in which Q2 returns were positive for SPY, only 5 of the years showed a negative Q2 performance (1998, 1999, 2001, 2004, 2023).
The message from the market history is clear. After a positive quarter that averted the Q1 woes, investors are likely to benefit by staying on course.
2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)
SPDW is updated every Monday.
After 6 days of consecutive rises, SPY finds itself slightly stalling below the 1.618 extension of wave (i). Remember how I always talk about “doji”s - in an uptrend, it signals the bears are finally stepping in to cancel out the bulls. The final steps towards our $625 target (the 1.618 extension) could slow from here.
At $551, QQQ is now just shy of the 1.764 extension of wave (i). While 1.764 is a standard hurdle for wave (iii), the market could stretch further into the 200% extension next.
Encouragingly, the RSI is in the overbought territory, which puts an end to the bearish divergence. This means, even if we turn down from here, we unlikely have seen “the top”.
3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
07/30/25 | 4.33 | 4.28 | -0.05 |
09/17/25 | 4.28 | 4.08 | -0.2 |
11/05/25 | 4.08 | 3.83 | -0.25 |
12/17/25 | 3.83 | 3.66 | -0.17 |
01/28/26 | 3.66 | 3.49 | -0.17 |
03/18/26 | 3.49 | 3.39 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.39 | 3.29 | -0.1 |
06/17/26 | 3.29 | 3.19 | -0.1 |
07/29/26 | 3.19 | 3.09 | -0.1 |
The market foresees 4-5 cuts in the next 12 months. This is a fairly aggressive level of pricing versus the Fed’s guidance.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings
SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT
Ticker | YXI Signal | Technical | Valuation | Seasonality | Total | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - |
QQQ | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - |
BTC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - |
AAPL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - |
AMZN | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | - |
GOOGL | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | - |
META | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | - |
MSFT | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - |
NVDA | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | - |
TSLA | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - |
PLTR | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - |
TLT | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | - |
You can read our explainer on the 4-3-2-1 framework here.
How Useful Do You Find Today's 4-3-2-1 Ratings?Please leave a comment for feedback or suggestions. Thank you. |
5. USO
Oil is in a dichotomy. On the fundamental side, supply growth (+1.6 mb/d) far outstrips demand growth (+740 kb/d) in 2025. Without the Middle East escalation, USO easily trades in the low $60s or even $50s here.
However, the constant threat of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz keeps traders on their toes. The Strait is the exporting route for 25% of the world’s supply - its closure can send oil spiking much higher than the previous high.
6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT
US Treasury Yield Curve
US 30Y Yield (https://www.tradingview.com/x/xtqdKNxT/)
The 30-year yield continues to retrace towards the 200 EMA in the near-term.
TLT is opening at the 200 EMA today. This could be a resistance level in the near-term.
7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)
COIN is updated every Monday.
Bitcoin has turned down at the resistance line again - not good for the near-term momentum.
It is running out of room between the supporting channel trend line and the overhead resistance. I would expect a big move soon to resolve this. I am still bullish on the margin.
8. Gold (GLD, GDX)
GDX is updated every Monday
GLD managed to bounce in the past 2 days to avoid a straight down to wave c. While it remains in the consolidation channel, I remain neutral on Gold.
If GLD breaks above the resistance line, the wave circle-c may just be a wave ii retrace instead, for the larger degree wave 5.
9. Magnificent 7 Stocks
Magnificent 7 Performance YTD
Mag-7 stocks have diverged this year in their investor sentiment.
META leads the Mag-7s, up 26% YTD, followed by MSFT and NVDA at 18%. However, investors are still not warm to AAPL and TSLA, who have lost 18% and 21% YTD respectively.
Apple
AAPL enjoyed a solidly green day on Monday. It looks continuing the bounce today. If we close higher today, I can give AAPL a point for its short-term uptrend.
Amazon
It’s totally fascinating to me how Amazon closed H1 on Monday at precisely 0% YTD - the close of 219.39 on June 30 was the exact price it closed on December 31, 2024.
Alphabet
GOOGL retraced upon hitting the wave iii high on Monday. The near-term trend remains positive.
Moreover, GOOGL appears to be climbing in a fairly tight upward channel, which we can use for the new support and resistance.
Meta
It’s difficult to stop this META train, as its wave (iii) extends beyond the 1.764 extension of wave (i). And all of this is inside a larger wave circle-iii. Holding on and watching seems the best tactic right now.
Microsoft
MSFT is definitely the new hot stock after its Q1 earnings, with everyday bringing a fresh all time high. I suspect it’s big money’s TWAP working. The question is once the execution is done, will share buybacks hold up this beautiful rally in July?
Nvidia
Looking at NVDA’s RSI - the new highs in prices are now accompanied by higher RSI scores. This is a sign of a strong wave 3 in progress, meaning the next pullback is a good buying opportunity before the wave 5.
Tesla
TSLA’s price action has been terrible, as Elon entangles in refreshed attacks on the One Big Beautiful Bill.
The political concern is whether Trump attacks Elon (apart from social media posts) in a monetarily damaging way that strips Elon of his world’s richest person title, to show who yields the real power.
TSLA is poised to open at the trend channel low, of which breaking below is ominous for our bullish count.
10. Other
SOXX
SOXX flat lines below the 1.764 extension of wave circle-i. The start of wave iv? Too early to say. Watching NVDA and AMD could yield us more clues.
PLTR
PLTR’s bounce on Monday was an inside candle. This means Friday’s candle is still damaging to our near-term trend, and the wave b possibility in red is still well alive.
11. Trade Updates & Monitoring
Live Trades
Instrument | Current Price | Trigger Date | Nature | Entry | Target | Target % | Invalidation | Invalidation % |
107169.3 | Aug 15, 2024 | Months | 57700 | 92000 | 59.45% | 49000 | -15.08% | |
85.12 | Oct 22, 2024 | 1 Year + | 61.8 | 100 | 61.81% | 53 | -14.24% | |
275.62 | Dec 17, 2024 | 1 Year + | 236 | 387 | 63.98% | 189 | -19.92% | |
34.33 | Apr 14, 2025 | Months | 31 | 45 | 45.16% | 27 | -12.90% |
I am removing BTCUSD from tomorrow. The current price handsomely exceeds our original target. It’s easier to follow my daily analysis in the Bitcoin section for my views.
I have adjusted my Citi read to a more bullish count. The chart looks more sensical with the new positions of the waves circle-a and circle-b. This implies a higher target for wave circle-c, although we keep the original trade target the same.
12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day
Recent Notable Flows (% of AUM)
The flows are represented as a percentage of the AUM prior to the flow.
Ticker | AUM ($B) | Flow % AUM | Flow % AUM | Flow % AUM | Flow % AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DUST | 104 | -4.74% | -11.79% | 0.34% | 44.44% |
WGMI | 192 | 5.36% | 1.15% | -6.51% | 0.60% |
NVDL | 4123 | -13.37% | -4.77% | -16.79% | -32.85% |
KOLD | 316 | 8.00% | -22.22% | -17.56% | -59.35% |
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