Hi YXI friends,
Please review today’s chart analysis of S&P 500, AAPL, MSTR, BABA, CRDO, NET, and TSLA machine-learning signal.
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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
Table of Contents
1) S&P 500
Using my proprietary price cycles analysis based on a 2-year lookback window, S&P 500 endured a cycle trough in November, coinciding with the first steep drawdown since April.
Previously, S&P 500 experienced cycle troughs in September 2024 and April 2025. On both occasions, we saw a market drawdown just before the cycle trough.
The cycles analysis confirms my more bullish expectations towards the year-end and early 2026.
2) AAPL
AAPL is the only Mag-7 stock reaching new highs this week, thanks to GOOGL’s recent exhaustion.
I have been bullish on AAPL since August, and even more so after their iPhone 17 launch, which showed a much longer lead time than iPhone 16 a year ago. The iPhone sales outside of the US has meaningfully accelerated from last year.
I believe the winter holiday season will show another strong report. Of course, the street is increasingly pricing into this too, so by the time we get to the actual earnings, there is probably sell-the-news.
Meanwhile, I do expect AAPL to easily reach $290 as the near-term wave iii target, before completing all 5 waves above $300.
3) MSTR
We have launched Machine-learning Signals on MSTR in our Crypto ML service this week.
YX Machine Learning Signals for MSTR
I have been tracking MSTR privately using ML for a while - if you follow me on X you would have seen my warnings in the past about it being “Risk Off”.
TA: Daily (https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZNGWJ4yy/)
MSTR spent much of Monday just below the target zone of our wave C of (4) pullback, highlighted in green.
The retrace of wave C can be deemed sufficiently complete, as MSTR trades with an mNAV of 1.16x (i.e. price is 16% above its NAV).
I would personally wait for my ML signal to turn Risk On before sizing my bullish bets, but from a technical perspective, I don’t see much further downside from here.
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5) BABA
The current shakeout in BABA took an a-b-c shape moving down. The pullback has only tapped the shallow end of the expected wave (4) region.
I suspect that we could get a larger degree wave B bounce next, before completing the final leg of wave (4) around he 200-day MA.
However, in the long term (12-month+), I believe BABA has higher highs to go in wave (5), potentially targeting $250
6) CRDO
CRDO is up 15% today, post-earnings.
My read is that CRDO could target around $250 to complete wave v of 5, after spending the past 3 months consolidating.
7) NET
NET could have completed all 5 waves of the initial wave circle-a, just above the 200-day MA (red line). The current rally may be a corrective wave circle-b rally (meaning a bull trap), before another leg lower below the 200-day MA.
The key is to learn the shape of the current rally - if it only moves in 3 waves, we could confirm the bull trap. If it moves impulsively higher in a 5-wave structure, it would invalidate my cautious outlook.
8) TSLA Machine Learning Signal
TSLA remains Risk On today.
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