Hi YXI friends,

The market marches higher in a relentless fashion, as “fast-money investors are edging their way back into US stocks”.

A BNP Paribas measure of equity positioning, charted below, is now back above neutral.

While stocks don’t go up in a straight line forever (something one must remember), the fact that the market is at new all time highs on a neutral positioning suggests further upside this year.

We use a combination of machine-learning, technical analysis, valuations, and seasonality to take the full advantage of this bull market.

Housekeeping:

1) I have just published a glossary of definitions for the common acronyms and terminology we use. Please check it out.

2) I am travelling between Friday and Monday. The daily systematic signals will be published as usual, but there won’t be full macro notes like this one until next Tuesday.

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If you are looking for our Systematic Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA (free), PLTR (free).

Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents

• 1. Daily Dashboard

• 2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

• 3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. Daily Dashboard

Bond yields did a round trip over the past week, ending up unchanged.

The US-JP 10-year yield tightened 5bp in the past week, due to the Japanese bonds falling. This trend could start weighing on equities as cost of carry trading rises.

Bitcoin made a new all-time-high above $112k last night. I think there are higher highs to come.

All Mag-7s rose except for…you guessed it… Tesla. The current setup appears similar to August 2024.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPDW is updated every Monday.

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/C4Fyd2F6/)

SPY is attempting another all time high this week, but so far struggling to get past the 1.618 extension of wave (i). This on the higher side of our original target zone. However, it is not yet “extended” until it gets to the 1.764 extension.

(A correction from the previous note - the moving average indicators are “simple moving averages”)

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/QTcsBI9X/)

QQQ’s price action has been more extended than SPY, now moving above the 1.764 extension of wave (i). This is in a stretched territory for wave (iii), but there is no rule saying it cannot move further towards the 200% extension in a generally very bid market.

3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

The market see 4 cuts in the next 12 months.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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