Hi YXI friends,

Yesterday was one of those sessions where the surface narrative wants to pin everything on the latest AI headline.

However, the mechanism looked more like a rates-and-energy impulse with a positioning cleanout in high-beta tech.

If I had to summarise: oil up, long-end yields sticky, semis and crypto equities got hit, but breadth is still not outright broken.

My base case is still a correction/ chopping regime, not a “real crash,” unless we get confirmation from the crash filters (funding, credit, USD). Unfortunately, the oil–yields combo is the one that can keep risk assets pinned.

This means we need greater visibility around a US-Iran resolution, with Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday pushing front-end yields lower. Together with an outflow from the Treasury Account Balance and an elevated USDJPY, we could see liquidity that helps risk assets bounce.

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