Hi YXI friends,
Welcome to the Asset Cycles board, a new section we will publish every week. It maps the dominant price rhythm for every name we cover, and we track these reads alongside the TA work to build a record of how useful they prove.
The broad picture this week: most of the board sits in the back half of its cycle. The equity indices, the Mag-7, semiconductors and semi equipment, hardware, cybersecurity, and the miners are peaking or already in downcycles.
The pockets still in upcycles are spot crypto (BTC, ETH), parts of AI Power (VST, GEV, TLN) and AI Software (ORCL, NOW), the consumer risers (RDDT, APP), the oil majors on the rising side (XOM, CVX), and scattered singles such as META, ARM, NET, HOOD, and RKLB.
Rates offer no offset on this read: TLT sits on the same rhythm lower as equities.
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.
Macro Regime
As of Wednesday, July 15, 2026, Risk appetite sits at +0.35z, liquidity at +0.77z, and inflation at essentially neutral at -0.00z.
That liquidity print is encouraging. It has climbed from -0.83z on Monday, July 13, to +0.44z on Tuesday, then +0.77z on Wednesday. We want it to stay positive a while longer to confirm a constructive market environment.
Asset Cycles Analysis
Asset Cycles Intro
Beneath every trend, markets tend to rise and fall in rough rhythms. They are the recurring swings that play out over weeks and months as positioning, liquidity and sentiment build up and unwind.
The charts below map those rhythms for each name I cover. Importantly, this is pure mathematics, not chart-reading or opinion. I run each price history through a spectral analysis (the same family of maths used to pick out the individual pitches hidden inside a sound wave).
It measures how strongly the price repeats at every possible cycle length and keeps the ones carrying the most energy. The long-run trend is stripped out first, so a name that has tripled isn't mistaken for one giant cycle.
On each chart:
The navy line is the actual price.
The orange line is the strongest cycles rebuilt as smooth waves and added together.
The shaded area on the right extends that orange wave forward about six months. That shows where the rhythm points next if it simply continues.
A word on how to read them. Cycles are not clockwork, nor are they fixed laws of an asset. Their length and timing drift as the market regime changes, so treat each one as the dominant rhythm of the recent past rather than a guarantee.
I use them for context and timing, never as a standalone buy or sell signal. They explain only part of what price does, and a powerful trend or a fresh shock will override them. The real edge comes when a cycle lines up with the trend, the signals and the fundamentals.
How these are calibrated, for the technically minded:
I measure each rhythm over a 5-year lookback (about 1,260 trading days) — long enough to give steady, reliable cycles rather than jumpy short-term noise.
The maths uses the Welch method, a deliberately conservative, noise-resistant approach that only trusts a rhythm if it shows up repeatedly across the whole history rather than latching onto a one-off spike.
I only look for cycles between roughly 1.5 and 14 months (a 30- to 300-trading-day band). Anything faster is mostly noise, and anything slower blurs into the long-run trend that I initially removed.
A note on data depth: a handful of names in this week's board have short trading histories, so their cycle reads rest on fewer full market swings and should be treated as lower-confidence — CoreWeave (~1.3y), SanDisk (~1.4y), GE Vernova and Reddit (~2.3y), Arm (~2.8y), Talen (~3.1y) and Constellation (~4.4y).
Equity Indices
SOXX: Peaking (trough ~13d)
IGV: Downcycle (trough ~13d)
SPY: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
QQQ: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
IWM: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
A clean sweep lower: all five sit in the back half of their cycles. SPY, QQQ, and IWM share the same ~171-day rhythm, with projected troughs about 68 trading days out (late October). IGV and SOXX run a faster ~51-day rhythm that bottoms much sooner, around early August.
Rates
TLT: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
The long bond is on the same ~171-day rhythm as the equity indices, pointing to a late-October trough. On this read, bonds and stocks bottom together rather than offsetting each other.
Commodities
GLD: Peaking, still rising (peak ~153d)
SLV: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
USO: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
Gold is the only one on the rising side; silver and oil are both in ~171-day downcycles pointing to late-October troughs. The gold-silver split is the unusual part, as the two metals tend to move together.
Crypto (Spot)
BTC: Troughing (trough ~8d)
ETH: Troughing (trough ~8d)
Both majors are in the final descent of the same ~171-day rhythm, with projected troughs only about 8 trading days out (late July). The two remain in lockstep, and on this read spot crypto is the first group on the board scheduled to turn, well ahead of the late-October window that dominates equities. Both reads rest on two detected cycles.
Mag-7
META: Upcycle (peak ~153d)
GOOGL: Peaking (trough ~15d)
AAPL: Peaking (trough ~68d)
AMZN: Peaking (trough ~68d)
MSFT: Peaking (trough ~68d)
TSLA: Peaking (trough ~68d)
NVDA: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
META is the only member still in an upcycle. Five of the seven are peaking, mostly on the shared ~171-day rhythm, and NVDA has already rolled into its downcycle. The projected troughs cluster in late October, the same window as the indices.
Semiconductors
ARM: Upcycle (peak ~44d)
MU: Peaking (trough ~25d)
ASML: Peaking (trough ~68d)
AVGO: Peaking (trough ~68d)
MRVL: Peaking (trough ~68d)
QCOM: Peaking (trough ~68d)
TSM: Peaking (trough ~68d)
TXN: Peaking (trough ~68d)
AMD: Downcycle (trough ~13d)
INTC: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
ARM is the lone upcycle. The rest of the group is peaking or already falling, with six names on the ~171-day rhythm pointing to late-October troughs. That breadth matches SOXX peaking in the index group.
Semi Equipment
LRCX: Peaking (trough ~11d)
AMAT: Downcycle (trough ~26d)
KLAC: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
All three are in the back half of their cycles, but on different rhythms: LRCX and AMAT bottom within weeks, while KLAC's slower ~171-day cycle points to late October.
Hardware, Networking
SNDK: Upcycle (peak ~43d)
WDC: Downcycle (trough ~13d)
ANET: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
CSCO: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
DELL: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
SNDK is the only riser, and its read rests on a single detected cycle, so treat it lightly. The other four are in downcycles, with ANET, CSCO, and DELL on the shared ~171-day rhythm into late October.
AI Infrastructure
CRWV: Upcycle (peak ~40d)
IREN: Troughing, turning up (peak ~70d)
HUT: Peaking, still rising (peak ~153d)
VRT: Peaking (trough ~68d)
NBIS: Troughing (trough ~8d)
EQIX: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
The group is scattered across the full cycle: CRWV rising, IREN turning up from a trough, HUT stretching into its top, VRT rolling over, NBIS days from its projected bottom, and EQIX already descending. No shared rhythm here; timing is name-specific. CRWV's read also rests on a single detected cycle.
AI Power
VST: Upcycle (peak ~153d)
GEV: Upcycle (peak ~48d)
TLN: Upcycle (peak ~11d)
CCJ: Peaking (trough ~68d)
NRG: Peaking (trough ~68d)
OKLO: Peaking (trough ~68d)
CEG: Downcycle (trough ~36d)
A genuine split: three names are still in upcycles, with VST holding the most room and TLN close to its projected top, while CCJ, NRG, and OKLO sit at their tops and CEG is already descending.
AI Software
ORCL: Upcycle (peak ~30d)
NOW: Upcycle (peak ~25d)
CRM: Peaking (trough ~7d)
DDOG: Peaking (trough ~68d)
PLTR: Peaking (trough ~68d)
SNOW: Peaking (trough ~68d)
ADBE: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
INTU: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
An interesting inversion versus the price action: the maths puts ORCL and NOW, two of the weaker price trends, at the start of upcycles, while the recent runners DDOG and SNOW sit at cycle tops alongside PLTR. As flagged in the intro, when cycle and trend disagree, the trend usually wins; we track these divergences rather than trade them.
Cybersecurity
NET: Upcycle (peak ~41d)
FTNT: Downcycle (trough ~15d)
CRWD: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
PANW: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
ZS: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
NET is the only upcycle. The other four are already in downcycles even as the sector prints the strongest price action on the board, one of the clearest trend-versus-cycle clashes this week.
Consumer
RDDT: Upcycle (peak ~48d)
APP: Upcycle (peak ~41d)
UBER: Peaking (trough ~48d)
NFLX: Peaking (trough ~68d)
TTD: Peaking (trough ~68d)
DUOL: Peaking (trough ~76d)
BKNG: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
RDDT and APP are the two risers, with peaks projected about 41-48 trading days out. The rest of the group sits at or past its tops, with troughs spread through late October and into November.
Crypto-Equities
HOOD: Upcycle (peak ~17d)
COIN: Peaking (trough ~68d)
MA: Peaking (trough ~68d)
MSTR: Peaking (trough ~68d)
V: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
HOOD is the only upcycle, and it is already close to its projected top. The rest share the ~171-day rhythm pointing to late-October troughs. Worth noting against the spot group: BTC and ETH cycles have turned up while the crypto-equities' rhythms still point down.
Energy
XOM: Upcycle (peak ~153d)
CVX: Peaking, still rising (peak ~153d)
LNG: Downcycle (trough ~68d)
The oil majors sit on the rising side of the ~171-day rhythm while LNG runs out of phase, already descending toward a late-October trough.
Metals
FCX: Peaking (trough ~68d)
NEM: Peaking (trough ~68d)
Both miners are at their cycle tops on the shared ~171-day rhythm, with projected troughs in late October. The rhythm cools the copper and gold miners together, even though their price structures look very different right now.
Space
RKLB: Upcycle (peak ~10d)
ASTS: Peaking (trough ~68d)
Same ~171-day rhythm, opposite phases: RKLB is about 10 trading days from its projected top while ASTS is rolling down toward late October.
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