Hi YXI friends,

August and Septembers are not meant to be easy months to trade. Things can get whippy, especially as much of Wall Street goes on vacation.

If unsure, one could always start to size down their positioning and take a break from the market. August is designed for it.

PLTR was the star of Tuesday. But a deeper examination reveals that +8% after earnings is not as dramatic as it looks compared to the regular 20% pops in the past 3 years. The stock is the epitome that the expensive can get more expensive. One just needs to remember that the opposite is also true, when its growth starts to slow some day.

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Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Dashboard

• 2. SPY, QQQ

• 3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Dashboard

The market has failed to follow through on the strong Monday bounce.

On Tuesday, both SPY and QQQ declined, alongside Bitcoin and the majority of Mag-7s. While the size of the retreat was modest, I do think there is danger for a deeper pullback from here.

Bond and Gold both edged higher, signalling the market anxiety over risk assets vs. safe havens.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/GTP5T3qz/)

I lean towards SPY testing the 50-day MA and subsequently the $605 level at the 0.236 retrace of wave 3 in the near term.

There is a bunch of volume support, followed by the 200-day MA in the $585-605 region. My view is that we unlikely breach below this support area.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/JUbtuY5V/)

QQQ could also test the 50-day MA, and subsequently $536 for a minimum wave 4 pullback, at the 0.236 retrace of wave 3.

There is heavy volume and the 200-day MA at the $513-536 region. I do not expect QQQ to breach below it in the current market regime.

Macro Correlations

UUP (US Dollar ETF) is moving inversely with IWM and GLD, i.e. strong Dollars saw weaknesses in small caps and Gold.

TLT is moving negatively with IBIT (Bitcoin), meaning yields and crypto are trading in the same direction.

SPY, QQQ, and HYG (High Yield Credit) are moving in sync with each other as we are in the middle of an earnings season.

3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

Fed funds futures priced away 5bp of cuts for the December meeting, but we are still looking at 4-5 cuts in the next 12 months.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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