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Bitcoin Nears All Time High While Equities Stall
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR
Yimin Xu
May 21, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
It’s Bitcoin’s showtime again, as it soars towards the all time high. But this time it does feel a little different. I’ve not seen toasts and celebrations on FinTwit. There are no Bloomberg and Reuters headlines. Michael Saylor is still justifying his Bitcoin purchases to an FT reporter, who claims Bitcoin is as valuable as her tooth because both are scarce. (Watch the interview here).
Luckily, our algo did capture Bitcoin’s entire rally since launch. The YXI Bitcoin Signal is now up 27.8% after launching on April 14.
This actually is our quant. Long $IBIT, for disclosure. Congratulations to @yxinsights whose Bitcoin Quant Service has blown the lights out.
— Cestrian Capital Research, Inc (@CestrianInc)
12:53 AM • May 21, 2025
If you only want the daily Bitcoin signals and nothing else, you can sign up via the Cestrian page here.
Otherwise, please enjoy today’s analysis across SPY, QQQ, USO, TLT, Bitcoin, Mag-7, SOXX, and PLTR.
If you are looking for our Systematic Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META, NVDA, TSLA (free), PLTR (free), and TLT.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. YXI Daily Dashboard
Observations from today
Bonds AND stocks fells on Tuesday, while Gold rose. This pattern appeared similar to the sell-off in March.
TSLA outperformed its peers, while GOOGL underperformed.
Fed liquidity is back to the expansionary mode, while G5 M2 levels are back to their recent highs.
SPY, QQQ
SPY vs 10Y Yield (https://www.tradingview.com/x/F8wAbtZk/)
SPY is more or less following the trajectory of the bond yield currently. Higher yields appear to be leading equity indices higher.
This also means a retreat in yields could see SPY & QQQ pause their rallies.
Why are yields and stocks moving in a broadly similar direction? I think the answer is asset rotation in a period of anxiety. Investors assess stocks against holding bonds or gold, which means higher equity prices come at the expense of lower bond prices (and sometimes gold prices).
SPY printed a doji candle on Tuesday, this is bearish on the margin. Why? A doji candle is when the closing price is almost the same as the open, with a short intraday range. In a rising trend, it signals that the bulls are hesitant to press higher, with the bearish pressure cancelling out the bullish one.
There is a large volume profile building around $585-595. There is a fierce battle going on between those who look to de-risk from the rally and the previous bag holding and those who are eyeing the all time high. We could see the market move sideways for another couple of days.
SPY Fund Flow
QQQ’s RSI starts to turn down but remains overbought. There is a lot of selling pressure at the current levels ahead of our resistance zone above.
Could QQQ turn down from here directly? Yes there’s that chance. But I favour the bulls at least put one more attempt at $527 before that happens.
QQQ Fund Flow
Fund flows are favourable for QQQ, as investors have been net buyers in the past two weeks.
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
06/11/25 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 0 |
07/30/25 | 4.33 | 4.23 | -0.1 |
09/17/25 | 4.23 | 4.13 | -0.1 |
11/05/25 | 4.13 | 3.98 | -0.15 |
12/17/25 | 3.98 | 3.83 | -0.15 |
01/28/26 | 3.83 | 3.68 | -0.15 |
03/18/26 | 3.68 | 3.58 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.58 | 3.48 | -0.1 |
06/17/26 | 3.48 | 3.43 | -0.05 |
There were very little changes in front end yields overnight. The market is looking at 3-4 cuts in the next 12 months.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
2. Summary Of Today’s YXI Signals
SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META, TSLA, PLTR
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