Hi YXI friends,

Having reached $122k on Monday, Bitcoin has reached our minimum wave 5 target. But our liquidity, seasonality, and machine-learning analyses suggests there could be further upside after the current pullback.

NVDA received an encouraging green light from the White House to sell these H20 chips to China again. This should reverse the $4.5 billion charge back it made in Q1.

I have made updates to our 4-3-2-1 ratings to a number of holdings - premium members please take a look at them.

Premium subscriptions unlock all of our ML-model signals, our proprietary ratings for each risk asset, and our daily macro notes covering equities, oil, rates, crypto, Gold, Mag-7s, SOXX and PLTR.

If you are looking for our Systematic Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA (free), PLTR (free).

Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents

• 1. CPI Preview

• 2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

• 3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. CPI Preview

The market estimates a 0.3% MoM in both the Headline and the Core CPI. While I would agree with the headline figure due to a spike in oil in June, the risk for Core CPI is biased toward the low side.

A key contributor to the Core CPI is the hourly earnings that drive the services inflation. Hourly earnings in June slowed from 0.4% MoM to an unexpected 0.2% MoM.

Should we be correct, we could see the yields lower to price in greater Fed cuts. This may boost equities today.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPDW is updated every Monday.

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/5BzOMItM/)

SPY is attempting a new high past the 1.618 extension of wave (i). If it follows the QQQ’s lead, it could push towards the 1.764 extension at $637 before a meaningful pullback.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/s76GMYVU/)

QQQ marches on towards the 200% extension of wave (i). This is getting into the stretched territory, but we are in a risk on environment with sidelined money starting to chase performance. Extended runs and shallow pullbacks are reasonable.

3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

Before the CPI release, the market expects under 4 cuts in the next 12 months.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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