Hi YXI friends,

US-Iran two-week ceasefire is the only story that matters this morning. Oil has tumbled below $100, S&P 500 futures are jumping, and US Treasuries are surging (yields lower) on the collapse in energy prices. This is a broad, violent repricing of the war premium across every asset class.

A lot of the bearish structures have been shifted into a more neutral and even potentially bullish setup - you will see in my chart analysis below. While there is a lot to be optimistic about, I am not entirely letting my guard down.

Iran explicitly warns it will keep fingers on the trigger during talks, and Israel says Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire. The exclusion of Lebanon and Iran's hawkish rhetoric mean the war premium could snap back quickly if talks falter. After all, a two-week ceasefire is not a peace deal, and the speed of the repricing creates asymmetric downside risk if the agreement collapses.

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