Hi YXI friends,
Trump again suggests that the end of the war is near, but so far, there is no credible timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. While the equities market is optimistic about a quick end to the war (and therefore limited economic damage), oil supply normalisation remains extremely uncertain.
At the same time, tariff risk is re-emerging, with Bessent signalling US tariffs could return by July. Consequently, the risk right now is two-way rather than a straight line meltup.
On the bull’s side, liquidity is improving thanks to the falling TGA and a weak JPY. But on the bear’s side, the volumes of the past two weeks have been very thin. They do not scream a high-conviction environment to me.
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