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CrowdStrike is a global cybersecurity provider with the flagship “CrowdStrike Falcon” platform. Falcon aims to “stop breaches” across endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data.

There are three key points to remember about CRWD’s commercial approach.

CRWD employs a SaaS subscription model with ratable revenue recognition over the contract term (typically 1–3 years), generally priced per endpoint and per module.

It has a “land-and-expand” approach towards customer acquisition. Customers typically start with a subset of modules and add endpoints/modules over time.

CRWD’s products are sold through both direct sales and a broad channel partner network.

Here comes the Management’s sales pitch on the Falcon platform:

Falcon is marketed as a “cybersecurity’s AI-native platform,” with a single lightweight agent and a unified data foundation that correlates large-scale telemetry to produce a network effect (“the more data… the more intelligent”).

Management describes the offering as an “agentic security platform” spanning 32 modules (positioned to reduce “data silos” and “friction”).

CrowdStrike’s Revenue is reported in two streams:

Overall, CRWD’s quarter showed a slightly accelerated pace of growth at 22.2% YoY. However, the 30%+ growth days two years ago seem to be behind us.

While CRWD’s TTM revenue is slowing, it has a very healthy book of deferred revenue and remaining performance obligations (RPO).

The Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) stand at $7.9 billion, with 51% expected to be recognised over the next 12 months.

The Deferred Revenue stands at $4.1 billion ($2.85 billion within the next 12 months). This is what CRWD has already billed or collected cash for, but cannot yet count as "revenue" because the service hasn't been provided.

The Backlog stands at $3.8 billion, representing the uninvoiced contract value.

The heatmap of CRWD’s historical revenue shows a significant slowdown in CRWD’s revenue growth since IPO, which is normal for any growth company.

However, as CRWD trades at a premium valuation, I believe 20% is the floor the company must maintain to remain in the “growth stock” category. Falling through this level could see a significant valuation compression.

CRWD has a very high gross margin at 75%. The subscription gross margin is even higher at 78%. The long-term target is aiming for another 5% increase in the gross margin, with FCF margin (non-GAAP) in the mid 30%s.

CRWD has not focused too much on the bottom line, which makes it difficult to value the company on a profit multiple basis.

CRWD spends just under 10% of its revenue on CapEx.

CRWD’s share-based compensation has grown substantially since the IPO.

My discomfort is that SBC’s growth far outpaces its revenue growth. I want to see either revenue growth acceleration or the SBC growth deceleration in the near future. To me, they represent real costs to shareholders, not just a “non-cash-flow” item.

CRWD’s FCF is consistent, but did top in 2024. I want to see improved FCF margins going forward.

CRWD has a healthy cashpile, which is why its’s happy to pursue a high CapEx strategy. It doesn’t buy back shares and occasionally pays down its debt. There is no imminent default risks on its debt.

Here are the key financial metrics from the past four quarters. I have designed the table this way so we only focus on the key top-line, profit, and cash flow metrics.

Here are Wall Street's forward estimates.

CRWD is projected to maintain the 22% pace in the next-twelve-month. If it can further accelerate growth this quarter, we can see share prices being revalued higher. I don’t think this should be a big challenge for CRWD.

CRWD trades at a 24x EV/Sales Multiple, which is not cheap given its 22% YoY growth. However, CRWD's high valuation is normal. Its median valuation of the past 3 yeaers is 22x, and we are not that far from it.

I would ignore the profit valuation charts for CRWD.

CRWD’s EV/ Sales suffered a crash during the 2024 July 19 incident, but has since recovered to its highs.

Here are the summary valuation metrics over time, including the NTM metrics (using today’s share price).

CRWD’s performance since its IPO in January has been largely positive. We saw a 15% and 16% rise in 2024 and 2025 respectively.

CRWD’s drawdowns can be very painful - down over 60% in 2020 and 2022 bear markets. This is something to bear in mind when risk-positioning.

CRWD trades with a moderately positive correlation with SPY and fairly neutral to bonds.

March is the most volatile month for CRWD, after it reports earnings.

In terms of cross-asset Beta, HYG and SPY are by far the biggest drivers of CRWD.

However, their significance have fallen recently, measured by R-squared.

The best days to buy CRWD is when it has a very large 1-day move. Buying after the stock falls by over 10% on a day yields a 3-month forward return of 47% on average. But even buying after a 10% up-day, the forward returns are still a hansome 21% on average.

Buying when CRWD reaches an RSI below 30 is also lucrative, with a 3-month forward return of 20%.

Luckily, this has happened for potential buyers recently.

CRWD’s RSI fell below 30 on January 2nd. Historically, the 3-month forward returns have seen asymmetric upside.