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Drowning In Noise (And How We Survive)
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR
Yimin Xu
July 08, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
When news and chatters are more accessible than ever - from traditional media channels to X - the noise to signal ratio increases exponentially.
Worse, the loss-averse human nature means people pay much closer attention to negative headlines. The likes of Trump and Elon posting nonstop over weekends significantly add to this investor anxiety.
While we cannot control what (very important) people post, we could control our own for knee-jerk reactions and switch to system 2 thinking when noise start to overwhelm.
This is why we use a 4-3-2-1 framework that combines, in order of analytical importance, our machine-learning outputs, chart technical analysis, fundamentals / valuation, and broader seasonal trends. Together, we are equipped to take multiple shots at the goal, without falling into emotional paralysis.
Premium subscriptions unlock all of our ML-model signals, our proprietary ratings for each risk asset, and our daily macro notes covering equities, oil, rates, crypto, Gold, Mag-7s, SOXX and PLTR.
If you are looking for our Systematic Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA (free), PLTR (free).
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. Red but not THAT red
As the market hovers around the new ATH, it is tempting to have one foot out of the door, ready to dash at the first sign of trouble.
Yesterday may have been have surfaced that first sign.
However, it is simply too early to call for a correction underway at this point in time.
SPY and QQQ fell by less than 1% - within 1 standard deviation of its daily volatility. Even TSLA, whose stock price is being plagued by Elon’s political feud with Trump, the 6.8% drop was within 2 standard deviations of the daily volatility. In other words, this is some business-as-usual stuff.
Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.
2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)
SPDW is updated every Monday.
SPY retraced right after meeting the 1.618 extension of wave (i). There is some more room, although not a lot, between today’s price and the trend line above. We saw QQQ previously stalling at the equivalent position.
QQQ is slowing down at the 1.764 extension of wave (i). The market is likely just feeling its way around new highs, rather than meeting a concrete resistance here.
3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
07/30/25 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 0 |
09/17/25 | 4.33 | 4.13 | -0.2 |
11/05/25 | 4.13 | 3.93 | -0.2 |
12/17/25 | 3.93 | 3.78 | -0.15 |
01/28/26 | 3.78 | 3.68 | -0.1 |
03/18/26 | 3.68 | 3.58 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.58 | 3.48 | -0.1 |
06/17/26 | 3.48 | 3.38 | -0.1 |
07/29/26 | 3.38 | 3.28 | -0.1 |
There were little overnight changes in Fed funds pricing - 4 cuts in the next 12 months.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings
SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT
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