Hi YXI friends,
I am inverting the timing of my chart analysis and daily deep dive today (to be released after the market open). In today’s Premium Insights note, I will be focusing on Tesla’s Earnings Review.
After a brutal sell-off in high-beta names yesterday, this chart analysis could help us understand where we are in some of the previous charts I covered. I am skipping Tesla here because I want to do my earnings review first and examine how it trades after the open.
Please review today’s pre-market-open chart analysis of Gold (GLD), Bitcoin, ASTS, BULL, and JD.
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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
Table of Contents
S&P 500 (SPY ETF)
I have designed a proprietary volatility indicator in TrendSpider to gauge the asset's 21-day volatility using a Z-score. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations volatility is away from the mean.
A high Z-score, e.g. in August 2024 or April 2025, indicates elevated short-term volatility compared to the historical 1-year average. This scenario often signals market stress.
Right now, SPY’s volatility is right around its historical mean. It means despite the anxiety expressed by the “Fear and Greed Index” or the significant Put-Call open interests, the equity index is relatively calm. Calmness, especially when the market trades above the 50-day MA, has historically signalled the continuation of a bull market.
I will make this indicator FREE on TrendSpider in the next 2 weeks. Please support my effort by simply trying it once it is available.
1) Gold (GLD)
On Tuesday, GLD experienced a $844 million outflow despite an intraday bounce. The current pullback is short of the 0.382 retrace of wave circle-iii. GLD could still see a new low tested at $360, even if we get a near-term bounce.
However, I do think GLD can reach one more high in the wave circle-v after this consolidation phase.
2) Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Bitcoin has managed to hold above the green supporting region right around the 200-day MA (red line). The volume profile at $104-105k suggests further immediate support if Bitcoin retests the October 17 low.
Following the Gold-lead analysis and global M2 charts (see Section 2.5 below), I do think the worst for Bitcoin may be over, and if it hasn't bottomed yet, it will very soon.
Wave 5 could challenge $140k, and it may well do so before year-end.
2.5) Promotion: Crypto ML Signals, Advanced Analytics
A: Crypto Machine Learning
I run a daily machine-learning model service on Slack for Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), Coinbase (COIN), and Robinhood (HOOD), hosted by Cestrian Capital Research.
The Bitcoin signal launched in mid-April has captured the risk-on rally from the start, delivering a 67% return over the past 5 months. The signal has outpaced the Buy-and-Hold strategy by 5% in this period.
While the Ether and Solana signals were launched only in July, they have already outperformed the Buy-and-Hold strategy by 8% and 9% respectively.
And here’s what happened on the morning of Friday, 10th October.
Crypto ML Model Signals on Friday, 10th October
My Crypto Signals sent advanced warnings during early European hours, helping subscribers to dodge one of the most significant liquidation events in crypto's recent history.
B: Liquidity and Market Analytics
I have also been using advanced crypto analytics for crypto (including alts) on RJ Alpha Dashboard. I am their first official business partner.
RJ Alpha’s Gold vs Bitcoin tracker has found strong correlations between Gold and Bitcoin movements with a 60-day difference. Our own global liquidity analysis backs this finding.
From today, Bitcoin could begin its ascending phase, similar to how Gold did 60 days ago.
3) ASTS
ASTS is a popular FinX name that saw some mesmerising rises in the past two years. However, it fell aggressively yesterday after proposing to repurchase $50 million of convertible debt through share issuance.
The current pullback appears to be a wave iv correction too. $63 is the deeper end of the correction zone, at the 0.618 retrace of wave iii.
So far, the structure has conformed to the standard Elliott Wave impulsive structure, where a steep pullback in wave iv comes after a shallow retrace in wave ii.
4) BULL - Invalidated
BULL has now blown past our wave (c) termination zone above $11. The structure now opens the door to a potential 5-wave impulsive down move towards a lower low.
I am cautious here.
5) JD
JD could have completed its wave 2 retracement of the larger-degree wave (5).
I suspect that wave 3 will test the upper trendline resistance of the price channel since October 2024, just above $41. It could, of course, break through directly, but I do prefer keeping the expectations on the conservative side.
Referals
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