Hi YXI friends,

Overall, the market momentum is slowing - we could start being lulled into dullness as Wall Street starts going on holidays, a frustrating period for the action junkies.

But as the market liquidity thins, it may also be the most dangerous period, where small initial movements could trigger unexpected large ripples. Just recall the carry trade unwind in July-August last year.

SPY July-August 2024

Might we see a repeat after the recent V-shape recovery?

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Table of Contents

• 1. Daily Dashboard

• 2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

• 3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. Daily Dashboard

I have shortened our daily dashboard to only include the asset price changes.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPDW is updated every Monday.

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/xXyvi78E/)

At the end of June, SPY’s 50-day EMA crossed above the 200-day EMA. The last three times this occurred - March 2019, July 2020, January 2023 - SPY continued moving higher for the months to come, although with volatility along the way.

At the beginning of a golden cross, there is always a lot of skepticism, as the market has just been recovering from a bear market crash. However, even if a skeptical investor forced their long-entry at the golden cross, they tend to do pretty well after.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/nWpwXzrV/)

After a flat day, QQQ continues hover at the 1.764 extension of wave (i). There are no obvious signs of a wave (iv) pullback starting yet.

(For our 4-3-2-1 framework: As the 1.764 extension is getting into a “stretched” area for wave (iii), I now remove a point for QQQ’s rating for the price technicals. Over time, we will better calibrate the technical ratings across the assets for consistency.)

3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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