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Is The Pullback Already Complete?
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR
Yimin Xu
August 05, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls scare was undone by just one session on Monday. This shows the underlying strength of this bull market, where sideline money rushed into the first dip.
Now, I don’t think the coastline is entirely clear just yet, as the Monday’ rally could still prove to be a corrective bounce. We shall keep a close eye on the key retrace levels today.
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Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. YXI Dashboard
SPY & QQQ rallied back to their Thursday closes, accompanied by strong price action in GOOGL, META, MSFT, and NVDA.
Oil retreated again, showcasing the volatility in energy market in a push-and-pull between oversupply and conflict concerns.
Bonds, Gold, and Bitcoin had a modestly positive day that do not offer a lot of information.
Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.
2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)
SPDW is updated every Monday.
SPY’s rally on Monday undid Friday’s drop, but did not take SPY to a new high. Until a new high is made, the current bounce is possibly only a corrective bounce in wave 4. That means there is still a good chance for SPY to further test the 50-day MA and then the 0.236 retrace of wave 3 at $605.
For QQQ, we could still test the $513-536 region.
3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
09/17/25 | 4.33 | 4.08 | -0.25 |
11/05/25 | 4.08 | 3.88 | -0.2 |
12/17/25 | 3.88 | 3.68 | -0.2 |
01/28/26 | 3.68 | 3.58 | -0.1 |
03/18/26 | 3.58 | 3.48 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.48 | 3.38 | -0.1 |
06/17/26 | 3.38 | 3.28 | -0.1 |
07/29/26 | 3.28 | 3.18 | -0.1 |
09/16/26 | 3.18 | 3.08 | -0.1 |
The rates market has not changed their FOMC expectations overnight.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings
SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT
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