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It's Still Risk On
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR
Yimin Xu
June 24, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
I titled yesterday’s note as “A Flat Day Is A Good Day”. Never mind - the market had other ideas.
SPY and QQQ closed 1% higher, inches away from their all-time-highs instead. The price action demonstrates the underlying strength of the current rally, making it a difficult time for those who are tempted to fade.
Today, our 4-3-2-1 ratings for SPY, QQQ, and TSLA both improved. As we update the ratings each day, accounting for the machine-learning outputs, technical analysis, valuation, and seasonality, we gain a strong grasp of the market environment intuitively too. That is an edge that keeps us ahead of the news narratives.
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Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. YXI Daily Dashboard
Key Observations
Oil retreated by 8% on Monday, upon the Middle East Truce optimism. However, there could be one more high coming if the situation re-escalates (see chart update in the USO section).
TSLA rose by 8% after the Robotaxi weekend. This puts the stock back on a bullish path towards $400.
Bitcoin managed to claw back its weekend losses. IBIT closed flat on the day.
Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.
2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)
SPDW is updated every Monday.
Fed Liquidity vs SPY
We define the Fed liquidity as the Fed balance sheet, less the Treasury General Account and the Reverse Repo Program, plus the Bank Term Funding Program.
The latest expansion of the Fed liquidity, mainly thanks to falling TGA balances, has been supportive of the stock market rally.
SPY vs Inverse DXY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/3hDifmdW/)
Moreover, SPY is still following the inverse DXY moves with a 3-month lag. Lower USD levels (i.e. higher inverse DXY) are supportive of US Equities as the Global Liquidity values improve (the same collaterals are worth more in USD terms).
Should this relationship continue to hold, we expect a new high in SPY imminently.
Monday’s rally puts SPY back on the upward trajectory. Our wave (iii) target of $606, at the 1.382 extension of wave (i), looks well within reach. A new all time high could be achieved imminently.
QQQ has also resumed the push upwards. It looks like it can achieve a new all-time-high this week, and potentially reaching the 1.618 extension of wave (i) at $540.
I have temporarily removed the wave (iv) target as wave (iii) is clearly still in progress.
3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
07/30/25 | 4.33 | 4.28 | -0.05 |
09/17/25 | 4.28 | 4.08 | -0.2 |
11/05/25 | 4.08 | 3.93 | -0.15 |
12/17/25 | 3.93 | 3.78 | -0.15 |
01/28/26 | 3.78 | 3.63 | -0.15 |
03/18/26 | 3.63 | 3.53 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.53 | 3.43 | -0.1 |
06/17/26 | 3.43 | 3.33 | -0.1 |
07/29/26 | 3.33 | 3.23 | -0.1 |
The front end Fed funds rallied (yields lower) on Monday. The market now leans towards 4 cuts before July 2026.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings
SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA
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