Hi YXI friends,

We have both TSLA and GOOGL earnings (after market) today.

I plan to write two separate earnings note tomorrow for them, after the market open. Unfortunately, that means no time for the full daily note. We will be making a market update video on Friday as usual.

On Tuesday, we started seeing some notable pullbacks in the market, especially in the semis. In yesterday’s morning note, we did warn a heightening short-interest in SOXX into an already stretched run-up. It remains to be seen if we had finally started the real pullback.

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Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Dashboard

• 2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

• 3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Dashboard

For a second day, we have TLT and GLD rallying together, this time with IBIT (Bitcoin) also. At the same time, SPY closed flat, while QQQ closed with a small loss. Some of the Mag-7s began retreating, notably NVDA.

However, in the grand scheme of things, all of the assets we cover moved within 1 standard deviation of their average daily volatilities.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPDW is updated every Monday.

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/js3KSd1M/)

SPY closed almost dead flat. While the short-term uptrend remains intact, the number of buyers here begins to look thin. I suspect GOOGL earnings overnight will determine whether we get the pullback near term. Recall that TSLA trades inversely to the market, so the market reaction to GOOGL and TSLA could be very different.

SPY Seasonality - 20 years

SPY’s seasonality is now becoming more neutral going into August. This means our equities will lose a point on the seasonality in our 4-3-2-1 ratings.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/z8v7cK2e/)

QQQ closed small down. It is in the stretched territory here for wave (iii), meaning the chance of a pullback is heightened. While QQQ may still extend to the 200% extension of wave (i) for a final push higher, we don’t favour the risk-reward here.

QQQ Seasonality - 20 years

QQQ’s seasonality is also more neutral here.

3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

No changes overnight - 4 cuts priced in for the next 12 months.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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