Hi YXI friends,

We are bringing some changes to the service in September. While preserving the usual technical chart analysis for all of the covered tickers, we are bringing in a lot more non-ML quantitative data analysis too. I will announce in September exactly how the new format and scheduling will look.

The overall goal is for you to understand with clarity how the market moves as a whole and be free from being led by constant news headlines. This is relevant (arguably more so) even if you are a Bitcoin maxi, or a TSLA allin-er. Separating the noise from the signals helps stay in the trade with conviction or tactically reallocate capital for higher efficiency.

Housekeeping:

• I am on holiday from Friday onwards, and returning on September 1st.

• Our daily YXI Signals will be published as usual, unless my internet coverage is severely disrupted. However, the full daily macro notes will be paused between Friday August 22 and Friday August 29.

• Before Christmas, I have 1 more week of holidays planned for end of September/ beginning of October for now.

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Dashboard

• 2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

• 3. FOMC Projections

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

1. YXI Dashboard

Friday saw a mildly negative day for bonds, oil, crypto and equities.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPY, QQQ, IWM Rolling 1 year returns, YTD.

On a rolling 1-year basis, QQQ has outperformed both SPY and IWM in the past month, signalling the tech stocks’ lead in this phase of the bull market.

SPY, QQQ, IWM Rolling 1 year returns adjusted for Annualised Volatility

However, QQQ’s outperformance is accompanied by higher volatility. On a vol-adjusted basis, it’s performing similarly to SPY.

Market Breadth RSP vs SPY

The equal-weight S&P 500 index ETF, RSP, has been underperforming the market-cap weighted SPY. This suggests a very narrow leadership by the largest companies in this bull market.

What we do notice is that the relative strength of RSP vs SPY usually comes during market downturns. Therefore, there could be a structural favouritism towards the top end of the market-caps.

Here is a cross-asset view of relative performances and volatilities.

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/8vhJrTtm/)

SPY’s price technicals remain in a bullish trend. Breaking below the trend line is when I would start getting cautious.

Looking at the weekly seasonality:

SPY is historically moderately positive this week, followed by a relatively strong week next week.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/BqLy0IOv/)

QQQ is also in a bullish uptrend still. I am unconcerned until we breach the supporting trend line first.

3. FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

The market still see 4-5 cuts in next 12 months. The aggressive cutting expectations are scaled back after the PPI.

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

Tired of Market Noise? Find Your Signal.