Hi YXI friends,

Trading is a series of continuous decisions, including the days you are idle and out of the market.

Made a mistake not to buy NVDA, in April? Made a mistake holding onto TSLA in Q1?

EVERYONE makes these mistakes sooner or later, in various levels of capital.

The key is can you push through and move on with the market in front of you, instead of licking the wound for too long?

While we cannot undo the past decisions, we can learn from them and make better decisions down the road. And I am here to help you with that.

Thinking in terms of the “gain” from bad experiences, instead of the “gap” (“I coulda shoulda woulda make so much money”), is what makes us grow and be happy.

Thanks for attending my Ted Talk. Now moving onto today’s analysis.

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Dashboard

• 2. SPY, QQQ

• 3. FOMC Projections

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Ether (ETH)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

1. YXI Dashboard

We are largely looking at an unchanged day on Monday, with the exception of META, which dropped by 2.3%.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ

SPY intraday patterns

Over the past 20 sessions, if you bought SPY at 11:45 and sold it after 10 minutes, you’d have a 75% hit rate of being profitable.

It could be the trades of Big Money from the West Coast - that I couldn’t tell you, but the pattern has been notable.

Squint your eyes slightly and check out the actual intraday moves in the region between 11:30am and 12pm on the chart, and that jump becomes very obvious.

Can you front run this? Very possibly. But the unknown is when the Big Money is done and that alpha disappears.

Another big question for this week is - should we do anything ahead of Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium?

If we examined the SPY weekday returns above, Friday seems to have disproportionately worse tail risks, bringing down the average returns compared to Monday - Thursday.

One could argue, based on this, we could sell at Thursday’s close or Friday’s market open, and buy back the dip in the evening if Powell shook the market.

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/AVzYSKFq/)

SPY printed a flat Monday, creating a fourth session of “nothingburger” here. We are still well above the trend line support.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ry4TZGP0/)

QQQ is also flat, but now a fourth session below its ATH. We could consolidate here into the trend line support.

3. FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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