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Market Finally Breathes. We Add New Names Today!
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR, NFLX
Yimin Xu
May 15, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
Today, we are adding some new names to our analysis. They include USO, Coinbase (COIN), SOXX, Gold (GLD and GDX), Palantir (PLTR).
As this is a hefty suite of additions, I will feel my way to the update frequency of them, on top of our daily format of SPY, QQQ, TLT, BTC and Mag-7. We will cover the new tickers at a minimum of once a week, but maybe more frequently if 1) my capacity allows and 2) the market moves warrants the updates.
For those looking for our machine learning Model Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on SPY, QQQ, BTC, TSLA (free), PLTR (free), AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and TLT. We also show them in the main content below.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. YXI Daily Dashboard
Observations from today
We are still in a modestly risk-on regime, don’t blink yet.
Gold GLD fell by 2% on Wednesday, now producing a double top.
GOOGL made a strong move up by 3.7% on Wednesday, trying to catch up with the latest rally of its peers.
Yield curve on a 1-month basis is unchanged, with both the 2-year and 10-year yields up 18bp in the past month.
Truflation’s inflation reading jumped to 1.79%, the highest level since March. Could this be the tariff impact finally kicking in?
SPY and QQQ
21-day Correlations between US 10Y yield and SPY, QQQ, IBIT
Traders should no longer rely on any sort of rule of thumb of “if yields do this, equities do that”.
During the year-beginning selloff, yields and stocks flipped from being negatively correlated (i.e. high yields pressure on equities pricing) to positively correlated.
But now, as the market recovers from the crash, the correlations between yields and risk assets have weakened to around 0, i.e. neutral. This means on any given day, yields and SPY / QQQ / IBIT could be moving in the same or opposite directions.
SPY vs US 10Y Yield
However, not all hope is lost. The broader directions of travel for yields and stocks (outside of the intraday relationship), appears to be on the same trajectory right now.
SPY is just 4% away from its all-time-high, which is simply remarkable given the huge volatility the market went through between February and May.
In terms of relative strength, SPY’s RSI went from extremely oversold in April (RSI of 22) to now almost overbought (RSI of 67).
Wednesday’s candle was a small doji. This typically signals market indecision as the bulls hesitate to press on, while the bears don’t yet dare short the market in size.
There is also an increased volume at the current price level. This is because a lot of investors bought the dip at the end of February (who subsequently got stuck). Now they finally could offload the position at breakeven and remove the pain of losing money.
Therefore, SPY could be stalling here in the near term to digest some of the seller flow. I still favour SPY get to $606+ in my wave (iii) target and can see an ATH before a major pullback.
QQQ has now crossed into the overbought territory with an RSI of 71. It is now inches away from our wave (iii) target of $524.
What investors need to consider here is:
1) There begins to be some heightened volume at the current price level from those who bought the February month-end dip. At the time, that dip was right at the supporting trend line, but these trades got pretty stuck soon after. The “bag holders” can now offload at break even.
2) The supporting trend line from November to February is now the new resistance, right above our wave (iii) target. Therefore, I would be wary in chasing the market here in size.
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
06/11/25 | 4.33 | 4.31 | -0.02 |
07/30/25 | 4.31 | 4.16 | -0.15 |
09/17/25 | 4.16 | 4.06 | -0.1 |
11/05/25 | 4.06 | 3.96 | -0.1 |
12/17/25 | 3.96 | 3.81 | -0.15 |
01/28/26 | 3.81 | 3.71 | -0.1 |
03/18/26 | 3.71 | 3.66 | -0.05 |
05/06/26 | 3.66 | 3.61 | -0.05 |
06/17/26 | 3.61 | 3.56 | -0.05 |
Yields changed little overnight. The market foresees 3 cuts in the next 12 months. No recessionary pricing in sight.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
2. Summary Of Today’s YXI Signals
SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META, TSLA, PLTR
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