Hi YXI friends,
The bulls continue get tested through an everything sell-off - stocks, bonds, crypto. This suggests a degree of positional unwinding as we head to the year-end.
Nonfarm payrolls today were a mess - a 64k gain in November was overshadowed by a 105k drop in October. The unemployment rate is now at 4.6%. Bear in mind that none of these data are at all reliable - the government was in shutdown for a very long period, and backdated data collection could create a lot of anomalies.
This week, we could get the downside targets completed on the stock/bond pullbacks. However, as liquidity concerns ease, thanks to a declining TGA, a narrow SOFR-EFFR spread, the Fed cutting rates/ buying bills, and credit spreads tightening, dip-buyers should emerge soon.
Housekeeping Reminder:
Our final daily insight during the Christmas / New Year period will be this Friday, December 19, via the video update. The machine-learning signals will be delivered BAU throughout the holiday season.
Between mid-January and mid-February, I have a planned trip to Japan, during which I will be working. However, there will be a time difference in the content delivery, which is likely earlier than it is now.
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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
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