Hi YXI friends,

The earnings season intensifies this week. META and MSFT report their earnings on July 30, while AAPL and AMZN report on July 31. All during post-market.

We have a tonne of other smaller growth companies reporting alongside the giants, many of them have run up a lot in the past 3 months, including RBLX, COIN, NET. It will be interesting to see if this set of earnings will finally provide the catalysts for pullbacks.

Our plan for this week is to write these daily macro notes on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. But for Thursday and Friday, we will focus on the earnings reports for the META, MSFT, AAPL, and AMZN.

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Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Dashboard

• 2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

• 3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Dashboard

We are seeing muted movements across all assets in our coverage.

SPY and QQQ have pushed into new all time highs, but Mag-7 moves are mixed. TSLA showed a 3.5% rebound from the ugly earnings reaction.

Bonds moved higher in price. USO, GLD, IBIT dropped by less than 1 standard deviation.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPDW is updated every Monday.

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/YGkyehCj/)

SPY has rallied 32% since the April low. The smoothness of the current rally after April 21 looks very similar to the November 2023 - April 2024 rally, which completed just under 30%.

The 2023-24 rally was followed by a 6% correction. If we see the same pullback today, SPY could test $600.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/N06gXxbn/)

QQQ is now reaching for the 200% extension of wave (i). There is no sign of the start of a pullback just yet.

However, if a pullback were to occur, as this move gets increasingly stretched, we could see the region around $525 being tested.

SPDW (https://www.tradingview.com/x/jppMdmQq/)

SPDW has ben exceptionally bid since the April low. This shows strong investor appetite outside the US.

One could argue that SPY is still down from its peak in GBP or EUR terms due to the weak USD.

Could we see a rotation back into SPY from SPDW with a strengthening US Dollar? Once we get the wave iv corrections, I think it’s very possible that international flows come back in.

3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

The market sees between 3 and 4 cuts in the next 12 months.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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