Hi YXI friends,

As equities ignore the labour market woes and geopolitical concerns that keep the bonds market on its feet, we are almost back to the all-time-highs again in the indices.

The short-term trends are very robust in what is still a risk-on environment. Bears will have their day one day, but not today.

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Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Dashboard

• 2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

• 3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Dashboard

Risk assets moved higher across board, at the expense of bonds. Most significantly, AAPL continued its big climb on Friday, up another 2 standard deviations.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPDW is updated every Monday.

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/TZSwLA4p/)

As SPY moves within inches of its ATH, I begin to rule out the prior Friday’s move as a real wave 4. We may have to wait a little longer as the overall market strength is still very strong.

Given what we saw in AAPL and also crypto, there is a lot of liquidity out there chasing returns. The theme for this week may be rotation rather than capitulation.

SPY Weekday Patterns

Over the past 12 weeks, we tend to see strong returns on Mondays and Thursdays and weak performances on Wednesdays and Fridays.

Moreover, on Fridays, the long-tail risk on the downside is higher - we see more frequent and bigger downside events than the rest of the week.

Of course, Nonfarm Payrolls being on Fridays is one factor (but the reports were strong until this month).

I think the market could more anxious about Trump tweeting about tariffs or some exogenous events over the weekend, and thereby closing their positions on Fridays. Once the weekend is over - whether good news comes out or bad news is psychology gotten over with - we get the relief bounce on Mondays.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/fr69v4Qh/)

QQQ is already back to its ATH. In my view, the attempt for wave 4 is largely invalid for now. As long as the trend line holds, we assume a continuation of wave 3 here, although it is making a fairly stretched move towards the 200% extension of wave 1.

SPDW (https://www.tradingview.com/x/EV19HQbu/)

We have seen a sharp rebound in SPDW, although we could still get a further downside in wave (c). Breaking above the wave (v) high could invalidate this near-term view.

3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

No changes to the market projected FOMC path of 4-5 cuts in the next 12 months.

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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