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(No Paywall) Proprietary Asset Cycle Analysis Is Here 🔥

Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, Rates, Crypto, Gold, Mag-7, PLTR

Author

Yimin Xu
September 09, 2025

Hi YXI friends,

As equities climb back to their highs, investors are actually becoming more anxious. The anxiety may have been driven by an expected weak seasonality for September, but it is reflected in very high put-call ratios in equity index ETFs.

Fundamentally, human nature is biased towards mean reversion, but equities are good at climbing the wall of worry.

The human suspicion isn’t entirely incorrect. There are cyclical and recurring themes in the market. While macroeconomists will recite the boom-and-bust nature of the monetary and fiscal policies, often known as “market cycles”, there is much more.

We are interested in the small degree - often months - cyclical behaviour of markets. And not just “markets” in general, but the individual asset behaviour according to its own rhythm.

At YX Insights, we have lately designed our own Asset Cycle detection algorithm, which maps out the top cycles from each asset in the near term.

Today, you can get a taster of the Asset Cycle framework in the SPY analysis in Section 5. Don’t miss it.

Our premium subscribers will receive a complete set of the Asset Cycle analysis this week, across all of the instruments we cover. Do claim a 7-day free trial today to receive it.

Table of Contents


DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Dashboard

2. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

We are making one change to our ratings methodology: if the YXI Signals switch from 1 to 0, instead of losing all 4 points, the asset would lose 1 point for every day the signal remains at 0, with a floor of 0. Vice Versa. This helps us adopt a more continuous approach to assessing the asset.

Ticker

YXI Signal
(Max 4)

Technical
(Max 3)

Valuation
(Max 2)

Seasonality
(Max 1)

Total
(Max 10)

Daily

Change

SPY

4

2

0

0

6

-

QQQ

4

2

0

0

6

+1

BTC

0

1

2

0

3

-1

AAPL

4

3

0

0

7

-

AMZN

4

3

1

0

8

-

GOOGL

4

2

1

0

7

-1

META

4

1

1

0

6

-

MSFT

2

1

0

0

3

-1

NVDA

4

1

2

0

7

-

TSLA

4

3

0

0

7

-

PLTR

1

1

0

0

2

-1

TLT

4

2

2

0

8

-

QQQ gained a point on its short-term uptrend recovery.

BTC, MSFT, PLTR all lost a point in their ML signals.

GOOGL lost a point as its valuation has now crossed above its 5-year average.

3. Market Breadth, Risk Proxies

RSP vs SPY

The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) has lagged the performance of SPY, suggesting the rally since April has been driven by the large-cap stocks.

This is not a big issue yet, but I would be watching for the potential divergence between the two. If RSP starts falling and failing to recover the highs, we could see strong headwinds in SPY.

Percentage of SPY components above the 50-day MA

The percentage of S&P 500 components above their 50-day MAs is high, but is declining. This puts SPY's next moves more sensitive to the performance of the large caps.

Gold vs Bitcoin

GLD has surged recently on a US dollar-adjusted basis. At the same time, IBIT has rolled over in recent weeks. The divergence could signal investors rotating out of risk assets into safe havens.

Credit Risk On Proxy

At the same time, the HYG/ IEF ratio, used as a “risk-on” proxy for credit, has been slightly declining. This means investors are bidding more for the short-end risk-free Treasuries than high-yield credit.

4. Asset Correlations

Macro Assets, 20 days.

In the past 20 days, Gold traded with a modestly negative correlation with stocks, Bitcoin, and the US Dollar (UUP).

IBIT stays positively correlated with SPY and QQQ. Interestingly, the US Dollar's strength has been supportive of Bitcoin.

Large Cap Equities, 20 days.

TLT continues a fairly neutral relationship with the large-cap stocks. AAPL and PLTR have shown the smallest positive correlations with their peers.

5. S&P 500 and Nasdaq (SPY & QQQ)

SPY - Cycle Analysis (New)

I have recently built a proprietary Asset Cycle analysis. Our Asset Cycle framework detects the recurring, cyclical rhythms in asset prices by filtering trends and applying spectral methods.

There may be multiple cycles detected for an asset within a period of analysis. Each candidate cycle is scored on strength (prominence vs. noise) and stability, and the top cycles are projected forward. The study highlights potential timing windows for risk-taking, rather than forecasting specific price levels.

For SPY, the dominant rhythm is approximately 75 trading days (~3.5 months), supported by a broader swing of around 188 days and a weaker short-term oscillation of roughly 34 days.

The combined signal suggests recurring 2–3 month swings within a semiannual backdrop - tactical positioning could focus on aligning entries and exits with these cycle inflection points.

The cycles chart suggests the market is approaching a local cycle peak, based on the combined projection of the top 3 cycles from the past 3 years.

Technically, SPY is in a bullish uptrend, supported by the trendline since May.

The put-call ratios by volume and open interests are still very elevated, as investors are keen to hedge their downside risks in the near term. $640 is a key level to hold as support. Breaking below it could risk an accelerated downside decline.

QQQ

QQQ’s climb has definitely slowed since August, as we barely trade above the July 31st high. However, until we see a sustained breakdown below the 50-day and the July-September trendline, we cannot confirm the start of a wave 4.

6. FOMC Projections, Treasury Yields, TLT, USO

FOMC Projections

We utilize the Fed Funds futures market to gauge market expectations for future FOMC interest rate decisions.

US Treasury Yield Curve

US 30Y Yield

The 30-year yield is challenging the bottom of the channel established in the past year.

TLT

TLT broke above the top of the downward channel from the past year. This could signal a reversal of the trend from here.

USO

The 200-day MA is the magnet for USO currently. The overall structure appears bearish.

7. Crypto

ETH is updated every Monday. COIN is updated every Tuesday. HOOD is updated every Wednesday.

BTC

The 50-day MA presents the biggest hurdle in the near term. Below the 50-day, we are still in a bearish short-term trend.

Note that the path in red is an alternative bullish path that requires further confirmation by the price action.

COIN

Our ML model has been in a risk-off mode for the past 2 weeks, as COIN continues sideways at the 50% retracement of wave 3.

There is a risk that we see COIN retest the 200-day MA in the near term, above which the volume profile is thin.

8. Gold

GLD

GLD has all but reached our minimum wave iii target of $336. There is room for further upside towards $346 before it is considered as stretched.

9. Large Cap Equities

Apple: AAPL

AAPL is continuing nicely towards our wave iii target of $264+.

Amazon: AMZN

AMZN is about to surpass the July 31st high, likely moving towards our wave (v) target of $243+ next.

Alphabet: GOOGL

GOOGL is in a deeply overbought condition, with wave (iii) now stretching above the 1.763 extension of wave (i). I am cautious here.

Meta: META

META holds above the 50-day MA. Technically, its recent pullback was sufficient for the wave circle-iv, at the 0.236 retrace of wave circle-iii, but we want to see more constructive price actions to confirm the bottom.

Looking at options, $750 must hold in the near term, below which we could see an accelerated downside move to the 50-day MA again.

Microsoft: MSFT

MSFT is in a bearish short-term trend. We could see a deeper retracement towards $470.

Nvidia: NVDA

NVDA could not recover the 50-day MA still. The short-term trend favours a test of our minimum wave iv target at $158.

Tesla: TSLA

TSLA is in a bullish short-term uptrend, as long as it holds $335. TSLA’s call wall at $370 will be a significant resistance level to clear.

Palantir: PLTR

PLTR is more or less pinned at $150-160, around the 50-day MA.

10. Selected ETFs

Semiconductor: SOXX

SOXX has not reached our minimum wave iv target, but is holding above the 50-day MA. It could still follow NVDA in the near term for further downside moves.

11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

Live Trades

Instrument

Current Price

Trigger Date

Nature

Entry

Target

Target %

Invalidation

Invalidation %

$C ( â–˛ 1.53% )  

95.87

Oct 22, 2024

1 Year +

61.8

100

61.81%

53

-14.24%

$CME ( â–˛ 0.08% )  

262.58

Dec 17, 2024

1 Year +

236

387

63.98%

189

-19.92%

$KWEB ( â–˛ 2.38% )  

39.04

Apr 14, 2025

Months

31

45

45.16%

27

-12.90%

C has all but reached our initial target of $100. It is in a strong wave (iii) uptrend.

12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

Recent Notable Flows (% of AUM)

The flows are represented as a percentage of the AUM prior to the flow.

Ticker

AUM ($B)

Flow % AUM
(1 Day)

Flow % AUM
(1 Week)

Flow % AUM
(1 Month)

USO

993

9.59%

5.17%

10.31%

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