Hi YXI friends,
Friday’s market action marked a significant shift in the macro backdrop.
Stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls data reignited rate-hike expectations, triggering a broad repricing across rates, equities, crypto, and commodities.
If the data were accurate, we have seen a three-month streak of 100k net new jobs added, totalling a whopping 565k net new jobs. That’s not a recessionary environment that would prompt the Fed to cut rates.
So now, the eyes are back to inflation. The market is no longer convinced we will have a short war, and even if we get a peace deal tomorrow, energy and goods supply may not normalise until the year-end, which may simply force the global central banks hands into hiking rates.
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