- YX Insights
- Posts
- NVDA Pushes The Market Higher With Tariff Court Ruling Tailwind
NVDA Pushes The Market Higher With Tariff Court Ruling Tailwind
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR
Yimin Xu
May 29, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
The stock market today gets help from a cocktail of NVDA earnings reactions and Trump’s tariff being blocked by the US Court of International Trade.
The tariffs that are being blocks had been exercised via the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, as illustrated by Bloomberg’s chart below.
Equities markets are, of course, quite happy with this development, even though Trump could challenge this decision at a federal appeals court, followed by the Supreme Court.
At the same time, Nvidia’s earnings last night further lifted the risk sentiment, with all of the Mag-7s moving higher at the open.
Today, we will focus on Nvidia’s earnings report in the Mag-7 section below, and assess its fundamentals, valuation, and chart technicals.
If you are looking for our Systematic Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA (free), PLTR (free).
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. YXI Daily Dashboard
Observations from today
The yield curve is flatter versus a month ago, despite the “curve steepening” narrative run by FinTwit talking heads.
Risk assets moderately pulled back yesterday, as the market awaited Nvidia’s earnings
US vs Japan and China yield spreads are both wider than a month ago, which is supportive of risk assets.
SPY, QQQ
SPDW is updated every Monday.
$SPY is looks to push past the May 19 high today, which could help invalidate the bearish wave (c) invalidation along the way.
As the market fully digest the late February “bag holders”, the path of least resistance remains towards our wave (iii) target of $607.
Above $607, momentum could get a little tough, where investors could become anxious around the all-time-high. There is also a resistance trend line to conquer around $617.
$QQQ looks to open at $526, which is right below the 1.382 extension of wave (i). This should invalidate the red wave (c) bearish expectations.
Once reaching $527 and above, the next pullback would be a wave (iv) correction, rather than expecting a new low.
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
06/11/25 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 0 |
07/30/25 | 4.33 | 4.23 | -0.1 |
09/17/25 | 4.23 | 4.13 | -0.1 |
11/05/25 | 4.13 | 4.03 | -0.1 |
12/17/25 | 4.03 | 3.88 | -0.15 |
01/28/26 | 3.88 | 3.78 | -0.1 |
03/18/26 | 3.78 | 3.68 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.68 | 3.58 | -0.1 |
06/17/26 | 3.58 | 3.48 | -0.1 |
Fed funds futures yields rose by 5bp overnight. This puts the market expectation at exactly 3 cuts before June 2026.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
2. Summary Of Today’s YXI Signals
SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR
Unlock Premium Now
Access valuable subscriber-only content, look through the noise, and gain in-depth understanding of real market drivers.
Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.
A subscription gets you:
- • In-depth Macro Driven and Quantitative Analysis on Bonds (TLT), Bitcoin (BTC), and Magnificent 7 Stocks (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA).
- • Our proprietary macro-driven quantitative model has outperformed Buy & Hold significantly—delivering higher returns, lower drawdowns, and improved risk-adjusted performance
- • Advanced Elliott Wave chart analysis, liquidity indicators, seasonality patterns, and cross-asset correlations to sharpen your market timing
Reply