Hi YXI friends,

Today, I have added some interesting quantitative observations to our assets.

I have given some thoughts about the direction of this service. For 2025, I want to drill as deeply as possible into the asset behaviours of the instruments we currently cover. This is compared with expanding into new names that could distract my attention.

Beyond the current work, I do have a lot of ideas for 2026. One of them includes a portfolio selection of top 20 names, aka the “Super 20” that combine both the dominant growth companies and the more up-and-coming themes and names. Not all Mag-7 will actually make it (e.g. AAPL in its current shape unlikely makes that list). I will take some time thinking about this theme.

If you find today’s new statistical charts helpful, please let me know via comments / replies / surveys. I will share more over time.

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Dashboard

• 2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

• 3. FOMC Projections

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

1. YXI Dashboard

Monday was pretty neutral. Apart from Gold (GLD), none of the assets we cover moved more than 1 standard deviation from its daily average volatility.

Gold seems to get sold off every time it gets near the $4000 / oz level.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPDW is updated every Monday.

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/g7DD2SUI/)

SPY is pretty much back to its ATH. This means wave 3 is likely going to extend, possibly into the $657 region (🤯) for the 200% extension of wave 1.

If I had to explain Elliott Waves + Fibonacci levels in an intuitive manner, we are assessing the extent of the current move (wave 3 in this case) versus the length of the prior move (wave 1 in this case). We utilise the extensions as a measurement of the ongoing trend. If the extensions are large, we are definitively in a bull market. If the extensions are small, we risk reentering a bear market.

One interesting phenomenon is that SPY’s returns in the past 5 years is largely thanks to overnight price action.

SPY Overnight vs Intraday Contribution to Returns

The chart above shows the performance of overnight returns (red) vs. intraday returns (orange) in SPY.

We observe a persistently large contribution of returns from the overnight market, i.e. prices that moved during the aftermarket and premarket hours versus the regular market hours.

SPY Overnight vs Intraday Drawdowns

At the same time, the risks of bigger drawdowns are higher with an overnight strategy, especially during bear markets. This may be because of a combination of amplified overnight news, poor liquidity, and panic spilling into Asian hours.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/rBlGMMN3/)

QQQ in fact achieved a new ATH on Monday. This is now eyeing the 200% extension of wave 1 at $580 as an easy near-term target.

3. FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

Overnight moves have been muted. We are looking at the same 4-5 rate cut projections for the next 12 months.

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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