Hi YXI friends,
Please review today’s chart analysis on PLTR, MSTR, BMNR, SBET, and DUOL, plus TSLA’s ML Model.
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Table of Contents
S&P 500 (SPY ETF)
SPY’s rolling volatility is still within its 1-year average, meaning the doomsday is not here just yet.
However, volatility has been rising since early October. Historically, rising volatility corresponds with market pullbacks.
Overall, we should be a bit more on our toes than in Q3.
Btw, you can get the above Volatility Z-score indicator for free on TrendSpider today.
1) PLTR - Topped?
Last week, I provided advanced warnings that PLTR could have filled all 5 waves from the August low.
Today, our ML signal has also signalled “Risk Off”, which has not happened in a while.
PLTR may have topped, but we need more evidence to confirm. It includes PLTR moving past the 50-day MA and attempting the $160 region next.
2) MSTR
MSTR trades at 1.3x NAV (you can track this on their website), which is the narrowest level for a long time.
The valuation multiple compression plus Bitcoin weakness result in a -7% 1-year return.
I now interpret the chart as being in a flat structure inside wave (4), where we are in the middle of wave C of (4). This implies MSTR could challenge $200 before the next major rally.
2.5) Promotion: Crypto ML Signals, Advanced Analytics
Crypto Machine Learning
I run a daily machine-learning model service on Slack for Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), Coinbase (COIN), and Robinhood (HOOD), hosted by Cestrian Capital Research.
Liquidity and Market Analytics
I have also been using advanced crypto analytics for crypto (including alts) on RJ Alpha Dashboard. I am their first official business partner.
3) BMNR
Having broken the $40 level on Thursday (which stopped my own position out), I warned on X that the overall chart structure looks much more bearish.
The current move now appears more of a wave C move from the August high. Wave c could land between $31 and $35 at the 100% - 123% extension of wave A.
4) SBET
In a similar vein, SBET is in a wave c pullback from the July high. It is already entering the typical termination zone at the 100%-123% extension of wave a, i.e. between $10 and $12.
I like dollar-cost averaging here, with a potential stop below $8.5. A wide stop implies a smaller position sizing to control for the damage to the entire portfolio when wrong.
5) DUOL
DUOL’s earnings report opened a whole can of bearish worms for the owl. A double bad beat if you paid $15k for Antonio Linares’ consultation session beforehand.
Now, forget how good the numbers were and how disappointing the guidance was, here is the playbook against the chart technicals.
The chart has clearly broken below the resistance-turned support that was a major market pivot in 2024-2025. That same support zone has now become the new resistance again. This means the regime has become “sell-the-rally” next into the resistance.
Will there be a bounce? I hear you ask.
Well, DUOL has never fallen by more than 20% let along 29% in its short history. But since IPO, there has been 9 occasions in which DUOL closed -10% on the day.
The average forward return was flat-ish in the following 2 weeks, but 6% higher after a month and 12% higher after 3 months.
The odds are more favourable with an increased horizon.
6) TSLA Machine Learning Signal
According to our ML model, TSLA remains bullish ahead of the shareholder vote today.
Referals
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