Hi YXI friends,

Powell speaks on Tuesday at the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference. I am sure he will get asked about Trump wanting to fire him again. It will be interesting to see how resolute he appears for seeing out the remainder of his term.

We also have Tesla’s earnings on Wednesday. Elon seems to be back to his A game going into this earnings report, ostentatiously flaunting his 7-day week work ethic and conspicuously arousing interest in a Tesla x Xai merger that he “doesn’t support”.

The two men have more in common than one might think. Powell controls the money printer that sends US assets soaring. Elon benefits from the money printer that sends his wealth number soaring.

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Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents

• 1. Dashboard

• 2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

• 3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. Dashboard

Friday was another quiet day, where bonds and stocks were largely unchanged. TSLA moved up 3.2% decisively above the 50-day MA.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/HhRTIuAE/)

SPY IS completing wave (iii). Price has reached beyond the 1.618 extension of wave (i). There is a bearish divergence here with RSI moving below 70 while the price continues upwards.

Going beyond $633, the 1.764 extension of wave (i) will be considered as becoming stretched. Therefore, watch closely for resistance at $633 - a failure here could trigger a corrective wave (iv) towards $600.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/lYZtZO03/)

QQQ is clearly within an impulsive wave (iii), but nearing its completion. Currently trading at $561, price action has gone beyond the 1.764 extension of wave (i), which is looking stretched.

Wave (iii) could still advance towards the 200% extension near $572, but upside from here appears limited before the wave (iv) corrective pullback.

SPDW (https://www.tradingview.com/x/9Zmocplp/)

SPDW seems to be within wave (v) of an impulsive move from the April low.

Price action currently consolidates around the 1.236 inverse extension of wave (iv), and has potential to complete near the 1.618 extension level at $41

However, the bullish momentum is slowing, with limited risk-reward in completing the wave (v).

3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

The market sees 4 cuts in the next 12 months.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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