Hi YXI friends,

If you have joined our newsletter for a while, you may know that I have been advocating for risk on since April. Together we have ridden this bull market almost to its fullest extent.

As each day passes, there is a natural human instinct asking - “When risk off? Surely a pullback is due?”

That is a very fair question, as nearly all of the assets we cover have reached their natural resistance zones. However, very few show signs of retreat.

At the same time, this straight-up market is generating a lot of FOMO, with money on the sidelines finally throwing in their towel to join the party.

I would not make any assumptions at this moment on when the next pullback would occur, but focus on the evidence in front of us. That bearish evidence is yet to show up.

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Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents

• 1. Another Nothingburger day?

• 2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

• 3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. Another Nothingburger day?

Bonds and stocks spent the Wednesday round-tripping between the selloff and the rebound, ending the day largely flat.

In addition to the tariff-on/ tariff-off headline flickers, we are now getting more "Powell-fired/ Powell-not-fired” newsfeeds too. No Fed Chair has ever been removed by the White House in the history of the US. But there is always a first.

Is firing Powell good or bad for bonds? Investors are already anxious about the fiscal impact on long-end bonds. Replacing Powell and cutting rates into fresh all-time-highs could induce an inflationary resurgence that propels the long-term neutral rates higher.

TSLA, in its recent decoupling, closed up 3.5%. However, just as I don’t like to exaggerate its falls, 3.5% is only a Z-score of 0.8 (meaning it happens with high frequency).

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPDW is updated every Monday.

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/PdPoirAz/)

SPY is stalling at the 1.618 extension for almost two weeks now, with heavy volume building. This could be a sign of big money distribution.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/wnG2ygQZ/)

QQQ is also stalling and building volume at the 1.764 extension. Again, we are in a zone of natural resistance, where investors are assessing the risk-reward of buying at fresh highs & expensive valuations.

3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

Fed funds futures yields were a touch lower overnight. The earliest chance of a full cut is in September. Given the evolving data we see, the Fed could wait even longer.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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