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- Pullback Cancelled? Risk Is On
Pullback Cancelled? Risk Is On
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR
Hi YXI friends,
After a big “panic” on Friday, equities held together remarkably well this week. We may even get back to the highs before the weekend.
Such is the bullish energy of this market, that investors struggle indefinitely to get the dip they want.
The best examples are Apple and Amazon - after big post-earning drops, investors showed up in droves to get in upon any positive news. Even our models were fooled for a quick second!
We are now back to firmly RISK ON.
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Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. YXI Dashboard

AAPL’s 5% rise was 2.5 standard deviations (SD) from its average volatility, meaning the White House announcement was a dramatically unusual bullish event.
AMZN’s 4% rise was also close to 2 SD.
In contrast, TSLA & PLTR are more volatile - the 3.6% movements in both were statistically common, as common as QQQ’s 1.3% rise.
Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.
2. SPY, QQQ

Was this it? SPY is now en route to recovering its ATH, which will surely leave the bears very disappointed.
Now, the bar for a deeper wave 4 pullback has risen, as SPY finds a supporting trend line below Friday’s close. If we see SPY move to a new high from here, it likely means we have only seen a wave 3 hiccup.
This is why anticipating for pullbacks is a difficult endeavour in a bull market (the opposite is also true in a bear market). It keeps testing sideline money’s patience with very shallow dips.

QQQ looks pretty advanced towards its highs here. We could have a case of a further wave 3 extension.
3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
---|---|---|---|
09/17/25 | 4.33 | 4.08 | -0.25 |
11/05/25 | 4.08 | 3.88 | -0.2 |
12/17/25 | 3.88 | 3.73 | -0.15 |
01/28/26 | 3.73 | 3.63 | -0.1 |
03/18/26 | 3.63 | 3.53 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.53 | 3.43 | -0.1 |
06/17/26 | 3.43 | 3.33 | -0.1 |
07/29/26 | 3.33 | 3.23 | -0.1 |
09/16/26 | 3.23 | 3.13 | -0.1 |
There were no significant changes to the FOMC projections overnight. The market expects 4-5 cuts in the coming 12 months.
4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings
SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

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