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- QQQ Is Up In April (Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, BTC, Mag-7)
QQQ Is Up In April (Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, BTC, Mag-7)
It sure doesn't feel like an up month!
Yimin Xu
April 29, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
The market had a flat day yesterday, as the bulls started running into their resistance zones. While we are losing some momentum, it is not a bad thing for the market to take a breather and assess whether it is reasonable for the market to have bottomed.
As we approach the end of April, let’s take a look at the MTD performance numbers:
SPY was only down 1.5% and QQQ is actually up 0.7%. What bear market?
While gold (GLD) stole all the headlines for investor euphoria, Bitcoin (IBIT) has more than doubled gold’s MTD performance. At the same time, oil prices collapsed at the prospect of a global recession, with weakened demand but rising supply.
In this service, we cover in depth the price technicals, quantitative model signals, and macro-driven analysis for SPY, QQQ, TLT, BTC, and Mag-7s.
For those looking for Model Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on TSLA (free), AAPL, BTC, and TLT. We also show them in the main content below.
Let’s dive in!
Housekeeping: I am travelling this week and will be slow in responding.
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. YXI Daily Dashboard
Observations from today
Yields are dropping across the curve, as the market expects 5 rate cuts by next June.
Energy prices remain under pressure, due to a combination of weakening economic growth and growing supply from both OPEC+ and Non-OPEC producers.
Equities were muted as the bulls are hesitant to chase.
SPY and QQQ Charts
The primary expectations are inked in black.
The alternative expectations are inked in red.
SPY stands above the trend line - good. But the momentum is weakening, as it enters the key resistance zone above $555. I wouldn’t rule out a retrace here as the bulls take profit from the bounce.
QQQ appears more ready to challenge the 200 EMA, but also faces significant supply volumes above $470. It could retest the trend line before moving higher.
2. TLT
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
05/07/25 | 4.33 | 4.31 | -0.02 |
06/11/25 | 4.31 | 4.16 | -0.15 |
07/30/25 | 4.16 | 3.96 | -0.2 |
09/17/25 | 3.96 | 3.76 | -0.2 |
11/05/25 | 3.76 | 3.56 | -0.2 |
12/17/25 | 3.56 | 3.41 | -0.15 |
01/28/26 | 3.41 | 3.31 | -0.1 |
03/18/26 | 3.31 | 3.21 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.21 | 3.11 | -0.1 |
Fed Funds Futures small rallied (i.e. yields falling) on Monday. The rates market see the earliest cut still in June, but a total of 5 potential cuts between now and next June.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
The SOFR yields are as EOD Monday.
YXI TLT Model Strategy Signal
For greater explanations on how the model strategies work, please see my separate morning note dedicated to the Daily Model Signals (TSLA signals are free).
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