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- Rising Middle East Tensions, FOMC, Triple Witching This Week
Rising Middle East Tensions, FOMC, Triple Witching This Week
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR
Yimin Xu
June 16, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
I’m glad to announce two updates to YX Insights over the weekend.
Firstly, our YXI Systematic Signals have incorporated the “buy/ sell at the open” strategy in our backtesting. This means when the signal switches from 0 to 1 or 1 to 0, the strategy shows robust results with buying or selling at the market opening prices.
You can find out more about our machine-learning signals offering and their backtest results from today’s article
Secondly, for the premium subscribers, I added a news section at the end of the article. This section provides summaries of the latest news headlines to our coverage universe overnight.
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. YXI Daily Dashboard
Key Observations
The rising tensions in the Middle East have induced pullbacks in both equities and bonds. However, Gold (GLD) is being bid as a safe haven.
Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.
2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)
YTD Performances
Gold (GLD) is by far the best outperformer YTD, followed by Bitcoin (IBIT). US Dollar (DXY) has seen a significant devaluation this year.
SPY is bound for a volatile week.
We observe intensified conflicts in the Middle East, which is directly impacting oil and therefore the inflation outlooks.
We have an FOMC on Wednesday, in which the Fed is most likely on hold but could plot a more hawkish path in its Summary of Economic Projections.
Finally, we await the Triple Witching on Friday (simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options).
Right now, SPY is just under the 1.382 extension of wave (i). However, there is a good chance wave (iii) has nearly, if not already, topped. This is evidenced by a clear bearish divergence on the RSI - higher SPY prices were accompanied by lower relative strength.
QQQ may have topped in wave (iii) right at the resistance trend line. The first support is $520, where the volume profile is the heaviest. The second support is the 200 EMA.
These two levels could set up for the classic A-B-C pullback.
SPDW has been edging higher everyday, but I do not see it as an attractive chase right now.
3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
06/11/25 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 0 |
07/30/25 | 4.33 | 4.23 | -0.1 |
09/17/25 | 4.23 | 4.13 | -0.1 |
11/05/25 | 4.13 | 3.98 | -0.15 |
12/17/25 | 3.98 | 3.83 | -0.15 |
01/28/26 | 3.83 | 3.73 | -0.1 |
03/18/26 | 3.73 | 3.63 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.63 | 3.53 | -0.1 |
06/17/26 | 3.53 | 3.48 | -0.05 |
Yields are higher over the weekend on the back of oil moves. However, the market still pens in 3 cuts before June 2026.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
US Treasury Outright Yields
4. Summary Of Today’s YXI Signals
SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR
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