September Woes To Begin (No Paywall)

Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR

Author

Yimin Xu
September 02, 2025

Hi YXI friends,

From today, you will see new, advanced analytics that provide a deeper understanding of each asset, going beyond machine learning and technical analysis. I have spent a considerable amount of time putting them together; please let me know if they are helpful.

Secondly, we are adding the technical analysis of ETH and HOOD on a rotational basis to COIN (Monday - Wednesday).

We are making today’s newsletter entirely free for everyone to see these changes. In the future, we will keep one note free on a rotational basis between Monday and Thursday. My only ask is for you to share with friends and colleagues who may find it useful.

The early morning YXI Signals are now entirely reserved for the premium members, who can access and act on the machine-learning signals at the earliest opportunity.

Let’s begin!

Table of Contents

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Dashboard

We saw a minor shakeout on the final trading day of August, with all major assets trading in the red, except for gold.

Among the large caps, only GOOGL managed to close green.

2. Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

We are making one change to our ratings methodology: if the YXI Signals switch from 1 to 0, instead of losing all 4 points, the asset would lose 1 point for every day the signal remains at 0, with a floor of 0. Vice Versa. This helps us adopt a more continuous approach to assessing the asset.

Ticker

YXI Signal
(Max 4)

Technical
(Max 3)

Valuation
(Max 2)

Seasonality
(Max 1)

Total
(Max 10)

Change from Previous

SPY

4

2

0

0

6

-1

QQQ

4

1

0

0

5

-1

BTC

3

1

2

0

6

-1

AAPL

4

3

0

0

7

-1

AMZN

4

2

1

0

7

-1

GOOGL

4

2

2

0

8

-1

META

4

1

1

0

6

-1

MSFT

4

1

0

0

5

-1

NVDA

4

1

2

0

7

-1

TSLA

4

2

0

0

6

+2

PLTR

4

1

0

0

5

-1

TLT

4

1

2

0

7

-

All equities lost a point due to seasonality.

TSLA gained 2 points vs before I went on holiday (August 21) due to the ML model being back to 1.

3. Seasonality, State of the Market

SPY YTD vs the past 10 years

2025 has not been a typical year, due to its high-speed crash in Q1, as well as its speedy recovery in Q2.

YTD, SPY is near the middle of the ballpark against the past 10 years. This bodes well for the rest of the year.

SPY 10-Year Monthly Returns

Looking at the past decade, September has been a particularly negative month for the S&P 500. The losing streak between 2020 and 2023 saw a 4-9% decline in each September. However, we did see a positive September in 2024, so “seasonality” does not imply certainty.

SPY - Forward 10 Trading-day Returns by Calendar Day

Examining the average forward 10-day returns of individual calendar dates, today (September 2) is typically associated with negative forward returns. From a seasonality perspective, we are in a more cautious territory for markets.

GLD - 10-Year Monthly Returns

GLD saw negative returns in all but 2 years in the past decade. Only in 2024 did we witness a sizeable positive performance for gold. Unfortunately, a positive August does not tend to carry through into September either.

GLD - Forward 10 Trading-day Returns by Calendar Day

The forward returns are treacherous throughout September for GLD.

BTCUSD - 10-Year Monthly Returns

Interestingly, Bitcoin is typically weak in August, as evidenced by a streak of consecutive losing years from 2022 to 2025.

However, September is more mixed. There was a long streak of losses from 2017 to 2022, but 2023 and 2024 saw positive returns. Finally, October is a month to be reckoned with.

BTCUSD - Forward 10 Trading-day Returns by Calendar Day

There is a slight catch - Bitcoin’s best returns in September come in the final third of the month.

4. Equity Fundamentals

SPY Valuation

SPY trades at a 23x PE ratio on a NTM basis. This is punchier than its 5-year average.

Why is the market so generous? This is because of the high growth expectations investors have for SPY. SPY’s PEG is at 2.4x, which is high on an absolute basis but not outrageous compared with its 5-year history.

Therefore, the real catalyst for the next “big crash” is likely driven by downward revisions of the US equity growth, whether due to tariffs, geopolitical shocks, or the Fed's unrelenting refusal to heed the calls for lower interest rates.

Mag-7 EPS vs PE (LTM)

In terms of valuation based on earnings, we can see that TSLA is definitely the most unattractive among the Mag-7s. AAPL is the second worst, with stagnant growth but still commanding a high P/E. MSFT does expect some growth acceleration but now trades at a very high earnings multiple.

On the other hand, GOOGL and META have high P/E expectations but are more cheaply valued than AAPL and MSFT.

NVDA and AMZN are closely tied in terms of their valuation vs. EPS growth.

5. SPY, QQQ

SPY

SPY is set to test the trend line today, after a new ATH last week. If it closes below the trendline, there is a strong likelihood that we are starting wave 4. There is heavy institutional hedging via put options.

QQQ

QQQ is less constructive than SPY in its technicals. Firstly, it failed to create a new ATH last week, while SPY did.

If we have commenced wave 4, which does look likely to be the case, I would expect QQQ to reach $542 as the first target on the downside.

6. FOMC Projections, Treasury Yields, TLT, USO

FOMC Projections

We utilize the Fed Funds futures market to gauge market expectations for future FOMC interest rate decisions.

The market sees 5 cuts in the next 12 months.

US Treasury Yield Curve

US 30Y Yield

The 30-year yield surged by 5bp today, now challenging the upper resistance trendline. Breaking above it could send the 30-year yield towards a new high. This was driven by a surge in the 30-year inflation expectation, following a rise in oil prices.

TLT

TLT now risks breaking below the supporting trendline.

USO

Oil has managed to stay above the 200-day after making a new low in August. A sharp open higher today could form an early selling opportunity, unless we see a sustained momentum to break above the July high.

7. Crypto

ETH is updated every Monday. COIN is updated every Tuesday. HOOD is updated every Wednesday.

BTC

Our ML model has exhibited a “risk off” signal twice for Bitcoin since last Monday.

I am now becoming increasingly cautious of my “higher high” expectation in the near term. While seasonality suggests a very bullish October to come, the current technical picture is mixed.

There is an alternative, bullish interpretation for this chart, which is that the current “3” and “4” are actually a 1-2 setup, with “5” being a nested i-ii setup. That would be an incredibly bullish, “Bitcoin to the moon (200k+)” type of idea.

ETH

I am more bullish on ETH in the current cycle, as it is enjoying a rotation of capital. I do think it has a higher high to come for wave 3, in the $6000 region.

IBIT vs ETHA Fund Flows

Examining the IBIT and ETHA fund flows, IBIT has been sluggish since mid-August, whereas ETHA has experienced strongly positive flows in recent days.

8. Gold

GDX is updated every Monday

GLD

Finally, the breakout we have been waiting for!

After consolidating for nearly 5 months, GLD is poised to break out of the range today into a new ATH. This paves the way for our wave iii target above $335.

GDX

GDX could be in wave iii of an extended wave (v) here, leading GLD in the rally.

9. Large Cap Equities

Apple: AAPL

AAPL is still making its way towards the wave iii target of $264+.

Amazon: AMZN

I lean towards AMZN being en route for wave (v). But as long as it doesn’t clear the August 15 high, there remains a chance of wave (iv) being incomplete. This is because the August 15 high could easily be a wave B (a corrective rally).

Alphabet: GOOGL

Last week’s rally extended GOOGL’s wave iii run here, where wave (c) reached the 1.236 extension of wave (a). If we go immediately higher from here, I will need to reexamine the technical structure.

Meta: META

META has been moving in line with our expectations of a wave iv. There is likely a lot of support inside the $682-723 region, evidenced by a heightened volume profile. I would expect wave iv to stay above $682.

Microsoft: MSFT

MSFT briefly entered our wave iv target area last week. There is a big volume profile around the current price point ($506), but we could travel deeper into the retrace zone.

Nvidia: NVDA

I am expecting NVDA to at least attempt $158, which is the 0.236 retrace of wave iii.

Tesla: TSLA

TSLA saw another rally fading back towards the supporting trend line. The rinse-and-repeat seems to be driving many bulls away, but it is important to note that higher highs and higher lows are a constructive pattern.

Tesla's options market is displaying a bullish bias, evidenced by a positive delta-adjusted notional value, with a low put-call ratio in the latest trading volume.

Palantir: PLTR

The August pullback has been sufficient in size to end wave iv for PLTR. However, we cannot rule out a deeper pullback to $141 (the 50% retrace of wave iii) just yet.

10. Selected ETFs

Semiconductor: SOXX

SOXX is progressing in its wave iv pullback, towards $228 as the first target.

11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

Live Trades (Legacy)

Instrument

Current Price

Trigger Date

Nature

Entry

Target

Target %

Invalidation

Invalidation %

$C ( ▼ 1.73% )  

96.57

Oct 22, 2024

1 Year +

61.8

100

61.81%

53

-14.24%

$CME ( ▼ 2.05% )  

266.51

Dec 17, 2024

1 Year +

236

387

63.98%

189

-19.92%

$KWEB ( ▲ 1.32% )  

38.18

Apr 14, 2025

Months

31

45

45.16%

27

-12.90%

12. Notable ETF Flows From the Previous Day

Recent Notable Flows (% of AUM)

The flows are represented as a percentage of the AUM prior to the flow.

Ticker

AUM ($M)

Flow % AUM
(1 Day)

Flow % AUM
(1 Week)

Flow % AUM
(1 Month)

XRT

417

-24.10%

14.41%

55.97%

DUST

119

4.60%

6.35%

58.32%

KOLD

171

8.20%

14.66%

-30.92%

BOIL

530

-4.92%

-3.51%

38.78%

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