Smooth Sailing To Close Q2

Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR

Author

Yimin Xu
June 30, 2025

Hi YXI friends,

A short trading week could see the market give one more push higher before reducing risks towards the holiday.

Today, we have added the 4-3-2-1 ratings for PLTR and TLT.

PLTR sits 7/ 10, with 1 point missing from the technical side after a 9% fall on Friday, and 2 points missing from valuations (explained in its section below).

TLT sits at 8/10, with valuation at full score, but missing conviction from the medium-term trend as well as a near-term 200 day EMA hanging overhead.

Our July 4th Sale has begun - you can benefit from our Premium plans with 35% off today.

Premium subscriptions unlock all of our ML-model signals, our proprietary ratings for each risk asset, and our daily macro notes covering equities, oil, rates, crypto, Gold, Mag-7s, SOXX and PLTR.

If you are looking for our Systematic Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA (free), PLTR (free).

Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents


DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Dashboard

May PCE ticked higher (Friday release) from April, justifying Fed’s wait-and-see stance.

Equity Indices pushed higher on Friday, with $AMZN and $GOOGL showing strength together. As we mentioned previously, GOOGL trades with high correlation to AMZN in the recent month.

We saw Gold $GLD moving down again on Friday, as safe haven demand wanes. There are question marks around how much China is truly buying at these levels.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

May PCE

May PCE came in at 0.1% MoM for the Headline and 0.2% MoM for the Core. Core PCE was a positive surprise to the 0.1% MoM expectation.

This puts the YoY readings at 2.3% and 2.7% for Headline and Core respectively, a tick further away from the Fed’s 2% goal.

This helps the Fed justify its wait-and-see mode. I see virtually no chance of a July cut. We may see a September only if CPI / PCE stay flat or lower in the next two months.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPDW is updated every Monday.

Fed Liquidity vs SPY

The rally since May has enjoyed some help from an expanded Fed liquidity, thanks to falling Treasury General Account levels.

$SPY enjoyed a risk on week in the final week of June, which could carry into this shortened trading week. $625 remains the next imminent target as the 1.618 extension of wave (i).

$QQQ is poised to open at the 1.764 extension of wave (i). It could push towards the 200% extension next, before a shallow wave (iv) pullback that tests the trendline.

Given the strength of the recent moves, my current positioning for waves (iii), (iv), and (v) only serve as placeholders.

$SPDW showed a doji candle on Friday right at the upper trend line. It signals a moment of pause for the bulls in an uptrend, where bulls finally cancel out the bullish move intraday.

3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

FOMC Date

Before Meeting

Post Meeting

Hike/ Cut in %

07/30/25

4.33

4.28

-0.05

09/17/25

4.28

4.08

-0.2

11/05/25

4.08

3.83

-0.25

12/17/25

3.83

3.66

-0.17

01/28/26

3.66

3.51

-0.15

03/18/26

3.51

3.41

-0.1

05/06/26

3.41

3.31

-0.1

06/17/26

3.31

3.21

-0.1

07/29/26

3.21

3.11

-0.1

The market currently favours 4-5 cuts in the next 12 months, a lot more aggressive than the latest Fed Dot Plot.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

Unlock Premium Now

Access valuable subscriber-only content, look through the noise, and gain in-depth understanding of real market drivers.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

  • • In-depth Macro Driven and Quantitative Analysis on Bonds (TLT), Bitcoin (BTC), and Magnificent 7 Stocks (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA).
  • • Our proprietary macro-driven quantitative model has outperformed Buy & Hold significantly—delivering higher returns, lower drawdowns, and improved risk-adjusted performance
  • • Advanced Elliott Wave chart analysis, liquidity indicators, seasonality patterns, and cross-asset correlations to sharpen your market timing

Reply

or to participate.