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Please review today’s chart analysis of
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Table of Contents
1) S&P 500 (SPY ETF)
SPY has managed to close above the 50-day MA after both of the intraday breaches this month.
Overall, risk is balanced right now. On the bearish side, we have a potentially incomplete wave (c) pattern that points to the $650s region as the pullback target.
However, there is a large volume profile between $660 and $ 670 as support. Moreover, liquidity is expected to return to the market over the next two weeks following the government reopening.
I like DCA here in building a long position for getting ready for the final wave 5.
2) TSLA
TSLA rallied strongly off the Friday low of $382, which I saw as the maximum stress test on the stock within this wave (iv) structure. Going below $380 would have turned me much more cautious.
For now, I remain positive on the next bullish leg of wave (v) towards $510-550.
TSLA Machine Learning Signal
TSLA’s ML Model Signal flipped back to positive after a constructive close on Friday.
You can get this signal directly for free inside TrendSpider - it’s updated in the morning, during early pre-market.
3) BTC
Bitcoin has just seen a Death Cross, as its 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day. I flagged this on X as early as Saturday.
Funnily (but not funnily), the bigger accounts on X started a wave of “Death Cross” analysis on Sunday, like they just discovered fire.
Back to our chart analysis.
Bitcoin bottomed a day after the last Death Cross, with several days of consolidation before establishing the bottom.
Right now, Bitcoin is already in wave (c) of circle-c target zone, between $90k and $95k. I suspect it could chop in this region this week as volume builds, but we are likely very close to a bottoming zone.
There is now a lot of doom and gloom on X predicting bigger drops to $80-84k. I don’t expect that. I read the current scenario as a repetitive pattern of the December-April drop, which bottomed at peak pessimism.
4) Crypto ML Signals, Advanced Analytics (Promoted)
🤖 Crypto Machine Learning
I run a daily machine-learning model service on Slack for Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), Coinbase (COIN), and Robinhood (HOOD), hosted by Cestrian Capital Research.
My BTC, ETH, SOL signals are also available on Trendspider, with a Black Friday sale. Its format is as per today’s BTC signal below. They are massively outperforming buy-and-hold strategies.
💧 Liquidity and Market Analytics
I have also been using advanced crypto analytics for crypto (including alts) on RJ Alpha Dashboard. I am their first official business partner.
5) MARA
My previous chart expectation was entirely invalidated by the aggressive selloff in high-beta x crypto stocks.
Here, I am mainly watching to see if wave c could stabilise around the $10 handle.
6) NET
My concern for NET is that the earnings pop could have marked the top of its wave 5.
The current pullback could unfold in three initial waves (a-b-c highlighted in green) or five initial waves (i-v in red).
The former (a-b-c) case is more benign, as it suggests a flat structure, with wave b bouncing close to its all-time high. The latter (i-v) case is more bearish, as we could see 5 waves down in wave a alone that takes NET to its 200-day MA.
7) DELL
DELL could have topped in all 5 waves in October. The latest sell-off could be wave a of the corrective move.
There is significant support in the $103-116 region, in terms of the 200-day MA, volume profile, and the retracement levels.
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