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Superforecasting Markets
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR
Yimin Xu
July 02, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
In the book “Superforecasting”, Tetlock and Gardner share that forecasting is less about domain-specific knowledge or raw intellect. It is more about applying a set of learnable habits and analytical techniques with discipline.
While the average expert performed about as well as a “dart-throwing chimpanzee,” a distinct minority of “superforecasters” vastly outperformed both the average expert and statistical baselines.
Specifically, superforecasters tend to:
think probabilistically, assigning numerical odds to events instead of binary yes/no predictions.
decompose big questions into smaller, more tractable ones.
constantly look out for evidence that challenges their current view to avoid confirmation bias.
update continuously predictions as new data arrive, often in small increments.
and aggregate a range of techniques, blending mathematical models, expert opinion, and historical trends.
While coincidental, this is our exact approach to analysing markets.
We utilise a variety tools across machine-learning, technical analysis, fundamentals, macro and seasonality to review fresh market data on a daily basis. We always keep in mind that the only certainty we have is that markets are uncertain - there are a number of probabilistic outcomes at each turn.
Our goal is not to get absolutely everything right, but to quickly get back onto the winning course after each mistake.
Housekeeping: This is my final full daily macro note until Monday. Our systematic signals will be released during European morning hours tomorrow per BAU.
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Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
1. YXI Dashboard
For today’s dashboard, I want to focus on the “Z-scores”. The Z-score of an asset’s daily move compares its movement on the day versus historical distributions, i.e. how rare is it to occur. Z-scores of ±2 occur only 5% of the time and therefore deserve more attention.
While META fell by 2.6% and TSLA by 5.3% on Tuesday, they only moved by a Z-score of 1.1. This is not uncommon stuff, even though the news headlines of “Trump-Musk feud” would suggest a much more extreme outcome.
Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.
2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)
SPDW is updated every Monday.
SPY is trading flat on Tuesday and t oday - we shouldn’t expect new highs everyday. It is yet to reach the 1.618 target or the trend line resistance. The path of least resistance remains up in the near term.
The RSI now moves into the overbought territory, higher than the previous highs. This signals we are most likely in wave (iii) rather than wave (v).
QQQ retraced by less than 1% on Tuesday, standing above the trend line, which is now our new support. I am neutral here as it hit the 1.764 extension of wave (i). It could try the 200% extension at $572 as a stretch in a seasonally favourable month.
3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
07/30/25 | 4.33 | 4.28 | -0.05 |
09/17/25 | 4.28 | 4.08 | -0.2 |
11/05/25 | 4.08 | 3.83 | -0.25 |
12/17/25 | 3.83 | 3.67 | -0.16 |
01/28/26 | 3.67 | 3.57 | -0.1 |
03/18/26 | 3.57 | 3.47 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.47 | 3.37 | -0.1 |
06/17/26 | 3.37 | 3.27 | -0.1 |
07/29/26 | 3.27 | 3.17 | -0.1 |
Fed funds futures yields moved higher overnight, but the market is still pricing in 4-5 cuts for the next 12 months.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings
SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT
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