Hi YXI friends,
Apparently, the Citrini Report that fantasised a blowoff top in October 2026 (somehow everyone missed this part) and a subsequent great-AI-depression broke the internet on Monday - literally.
DoorDash, IBM, American Express, CrowdStrike, and many more all saw a selling climax because, in 2027-2028, anyone could vibe code the delivery networks, payment systems, cybersecurity, and all the business economics would go to zero due to the competition. Moreover, given that human knowledge will be worth precisely $0, we will probably all earn minimum wages.
From today, I am going to offer a 10-year billing option, so our community can help me weather this downturn. Take that, OpenClaw!
Interestingly, this report didn’t arrive in November 2025, when IGV traded at $115. I would guess the report would have zero impact back then. But a 35% selloff later, when the software market was at its most fearful, the article, not even a real research report, managed to create outsized noise.
There were a couple of things I noticed about the initial article on X.
First, the X post shared an external link to Substack, and X infamously throttles links to Substack as a competitor. However, the post gained 3M impressions in under 24 hours. Even Dan Koe’s best-ever X article about “changing oneself in a day”, organically written on X, did not spread that quickly. This suggests to me that Citrini may have spent a lot of money on ads pushing this article (like A LOT, a lot).
Secondly, the author, Shah, admitted that he was positioned short in today’s Bloomberg interview.
“We generally have a set of shorts out against businesses that we think are going to be disrupted by AI,” he said Tuesday in Asia. “On the other side of that, we own a lot of semiconductors that we think are going to benefit.”
Alap Shah, co-author of a Citrini Research report
The most likely explanation for the sudden blowup was succinctly summarised by Alex King at Cestrian Capital Research.
As I iterate over and over again every day, we must observe the cross-asset markets to understand the bigger context and stay level-headed at all times.
Could we have overlooked something? Yes of course, likely all the time. But we keep learning and adapting to the live market environment every day to push forward. The worst thing is to be panicked out of ones position or into new positions, because mistakes only compound from there.
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