Hi YXI friends,

Yesterday was interesting. Based on Wednesday’s close (we only use regular market hour data), my signals overall insisted that the market was in a “risk-on” mood, even as it was on track to open in the red pre-market.

Even I was surprised when SPY and QQQ both rallied after the open to close higher on the day.

While the individual signals could be wrong on any given day, they still teach us something about the market.

Why? The signals are built individually using many macro variables as major inputs.

Positive signals indicate that the macro environment is still supportive of the asset prices, even if the market takes a temporary breather. More importantly, it helps us resist the human urge to take profit too early, or on the flip side, holding on to the losses for too long.

How have the signals done since launch? Here is a performance update.

For those new to our daily systematic signals, we currently offer SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META, TSLA, PLTR, and TLT daily systematic signals through machine learning. We combine these signals with our other methodologies in analysing SPY, QQQ, TLT, BTC and Mag-7 in the full daily macro note.

I plan to keep TSLA and PLTR free for everyone, everyday. Please share the newsletter with friends and colleagues who may find it helpful for reference.

Premium subscribers can enjoy daily access to SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META, and TLT signals. We are launching NVDA and GOOGL signals next weeks. If you haven’t already, subscribe now to lock in the current price forever.

We employ individual proprietary machine learning models for each name we cover to outperform the Buy-and-Hold strategy. The model examines the various macro drivers and asset specific factors against an asset’s historical price movements. It is a long-only strategy without leverage.

The unique strength of our offering is the combination of the independent cross-asset signals everyday, to clearly illustrate the market sentiment.

In interpreting the signal, 1 occurs when the model prefers being “position on” and 0 when preferring “cash”. There is no “minimum” holding period when the signal shows 1. The model strategy simply holds the asset until the signal turns to 0. This could be after 1 day, 1 week, or longer.

Currently, the model returns are calculated using the daily closes versus the previous day. In June, we will be moving onto a “buy / sell the market open” strategy for when the signals change.

The model does not try to beat the S&P 500 or produce absolute returns. Moreover, the model does not know when earnings or news events are. Finally, the model will not be 100% correct in its market prediction everyday (no model can be - please run away if someone claims this). The model simply tries to improve our daily edge by a few percentage points over buy-and-hold through more precise pattern recognition than the human eye.

(Note that each model is being improved over time, so the below success rates and back-test results are subject to change. The model outputs are not financial advice and there is no guarantee of future performance.)

Table of Contents

• 1. TSLA

• 2. PLTR

• 2.5 Summary Of Today’s YXI Signals

• 3. SPY

• 4. QQQ

• 5. BTC

• 6. AAPL

• 7. AMZN

• 8. MSFT

• 10. TLT

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. TSLA

The YXI TSLA Signal

(These results are based on historical data and may not predict future performance.)

Strategy Sharpe Ratio: 1.70

Strategy Maximum Drawdown: -33.74%

Buy & Hold Sharpe Ratio: 0.78

Buy & Hold Maximum Drawdown: -73.63%

Note the y-axis below is in log scale to offer a clearer comparison between the two strategies.

2. PLTR

The YXI PLTR Signal

(These results are based on historical data and may not predict future performance.)

Strategy Sharpe Ratio: 1.88

Strategy Maximum Drawdown: -40.61%

Buy & Hold Sharpe Ratio: 0.91

Buy & Hold Maximum Drawdown: -79.14%

Note the y-axis below is in log scale to offer a clearer comparison between the two strategies

2.5 Summary Of Today’s YXI Signals

SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META, TSLA, PLTR

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