Hi YXI friends,

Do you remember the stimulus checks of 2021, which helped fuel the massive asset bubble that pushed the S&P 500 up 30% by year-end?

We might be going into Round 2, as Trump floated the idea of a $ 2,000 tariff dividend for everyone (except the very rich) on Sunday. Bessent has been quick to address on TV that the President had not discussed the idea with him, and that the dividend could instead be delivered via tax cuts.

What is clear, however, is the Administration's determination to keep the stock market high. And this is before we get a dovish new Fed Chair.

Over the weekend, the Senate is prepared to move forward with the government funding bill to end the shutdown. While this is a significant step to towards the government reopening, the bill is not guaranteed to pass in the House.

Today, we see the market bounce across the board, after an oversold week, especially in high-beta stocks and crypto. It is key not to be complacent yet and to watch for signs that the market is in a sell-the-rally regime.

Normally, I prefer publishing weekly charts on Mondays, but given the current rapidly changing market dynamics, I will stick with the daily charts for today.

Housekeeping: I am moving home this week. There could be delays in my daily insights & chart analysis. I will not be able to write the Wednesday note. The morning ML signals are unaffected.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

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