Hi YXI friends,
Today, I am releasing the Chart Analysis early. This will be the final Chart Analysis until Thanksgiving.
Premium Subscribers: Our daily insight will be released near the market open or shortly after, as I am digesting the data on NVDA.
Please review today’s chart analysis of SPY, TSLA, BMNR, MSTR, NVDA, and NFLX.
You can unlock our ML model signals, quantitative, macro, technical, and fundamentals analysis across SPY, QQQ, TLT, Crypto, Gold, Mag-7 stocks, and PLTR in YXI Premium.
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
Table of Contents
1) S&P 500 (SPY ETF)
While the market seems frozen in the “extreme fear” territory, SPY’s realised volatility is only average compared with its rolling 1-year history.
In past crashes, volatility had always spiked during the selloff, crossing 1.5 or 2 standard deviations above its average.
The relative calmness in SPY so far suggests the bull market is likely intact, which will be confirmed once it climbs above the 50-day MA.
2) TSLA
While I remain bullish on TSLA, it does have a clear hurdle to overcome next. Namely, it needs to get past the heavy volume profile around the 50-day MA ($420-440), which now acts as the immediate resistance.
This resistance should not be a major issue, but it will require a bit of patience to resolve.
ML Model Signals (https://share.trendspider.com/chart/TSLA/62779771yqq)
The ML Model is back to Risk On today. We saw a “Risk Off” signal twice in the past week, which suggests the bullish regime is not as strong as it used to be. Bear it in mind for risk positioning.
3) BMNR
Context (https://www.tradingview.com/x/XhlxjZac/)
In order to analyse BMNR using technical analysis, I would argue we do need to align the price action with ETH. This means discarding the July spike, when it was just announced that Tom Lee would join BMNR and turn it into an ETH Treasury. The wild price action of BMNR around that time is not meaningful for analysing crowd psychology.
Therefore, I would personally start the analysis from the top of the August high, when BMNR and ETH started selling off in tandem.
The decline since August has so far taken the shape of 3 waves, labeled a-b-c on the chart.
Wave c has reached (and slightly exceeded) its target of the 123% extension of wave a. Wave c is also further divided into 5 subwaves. All of this fits the corrective pattern in Elliott Waves and lines up with ETH.
BMNR also tapped the 200-day MA on Wednesday, which is a key psychological level for the long-term bullish structure.
Now, I can see BMNR making an initial bounce here towards $36. As long as we hold the 200-day MA in the pullback, we could start thinking about the larger-degree uptrend again. There is a lot of “ifs” at play here, meaning risk is elevated. Investors could benefit from sizing the position accordingly (i.e. higher risk-reward, lower position sizing).
4) Crypto ML Signals, Plus All My Analytics (Promoted)
🤖 Crypto Machine Learning
I run a daily machine-learning model service on Slack for Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), Coinbase (COIN), and Robinhood (HOOD), hosted by Cestrian Capital Research.
📈 Yimin on Stan.Store
You can find all of my analytical tools (many are free or offer a trial) on my Stan Store page below. Please do share it with like-minded friends.
5) MSTR
MSTR trades at 1.17x mNAV, which is definitely the lowest I’ve ever seen since tracking the stock. This was 2x at the beginning of the year. One may argue nobody should pay for more than 1x mNAV, and it’s completely fine to stay away from the stock if it never reaches that level.
Currently, MSTR’s selloff fits a wave C description within the larger degree wave (4). Wave C can push all the way down to $167 (another 10% lower) but it’s not a requirement. If it does get to $167, the mNAV would be just 1.05x, assuming BTC’s value stays flat. I do think it begins to look attractive from there, if one is bullish on BTC (which I am).
6) NVDA
NVDA seems to have single-handedly rescued the market overnight.
The current rally could be part of wave c of (b), which means it’s corrective in nature, with resistance in the $200-206 region.
However, I hold only a medium conviction about the wave (v) top in October, so do take it with a pinch of salt.
7) NFLX
NFLX has been in a well-defined long-term uptrend since the 2022 low. As it closes in on the bottom trendline of the channel, the price appears in an attractive region for the long-term dip-buyers.
The sticky point for investors is valuation. NFLX is not part of investors AI focus. It grows revenue at a mid-teens pace for an EV/ Sales of 11x (not cheap). It also trades at a forward P/E of 36x, with forward EPS growth of 28%, so the PEG is above 1.
However, if the management can meaningfully accelerate revenue growth, the stock could get re-rated to the upside.
Technically, NFLX has done enough to conclude the wave c selloff inside wave 4. However, there is room for one more push lower towards $105 (not far from here) at the 1.236 extension of wave a.
The immediate challenge for NFLX is to climb above its 200-day and 50-day MA amidst a heavy volume profile in the price region. I do think wave 5 has the potential to challenge $150, which makes the risk-reward compelling from here.
Help Us Spread The Word
Unlock Priority Chart Requests and YX Insights Premium Access by spreading the word!
