Hi YXI friends,
Whenever possible, I will share my technical analysis of 5-6 stocks/crypto names after the market opens.
The time horizon of the chart differs individually - please do bear that in mind.
Please do share my analysis with like-minded friends and colleagues. The bigger our community grows, the more I can do in creating insightful, highly differentiated analysis that helps you win in the long term.
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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
Table of Contents
0) S&P 500 (SPY ETF)
Using our simple trend vs volatility analysis, SPY is in a “Bullish Calm” state. It means SPY has been trading smoothly above the 50-day MA since May with declining volatility.
The bottom pane suggests SPY’s current 1-month volatility is well below its 1-year median.
We need to start becoming cautious when 1) volatility starts to spike and 2) SPY breaches the 50-day MA.
1) TSLA
My primary concern is for TSLA to find a lower low in wave c of (iv), testing $400.
2) ETH
ETH has halted its rally just below the resistance zone in green. We could see a near-term pullback first, before setting up a breakout for wave circle-(v).
2.5) Promoted: Crypto Machine Learning, Advanced Analytics
Crypto Machine Learning
I run a daily machine-learning model service on Slack for Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), Coinbase (COIN), and Robinhood (HOOD), hosted by Cestrian Capital Research.
Liquidity and Market Analytics
I have also been using advanced crypto analytics for crypto (including alts) on RJ Alpha Dashboard. I am their first official business partner.
3) JD
Daily Chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/HbXOlpA3/)
JD is in an expanding diagonal pattern, which can occur at the beginning of a new price cycle. This means wave (4) overlaps with wave (1).
I do think wave (4) has likely ended, with wave (5) targeting the $50s.
4) SHOP
Daily Chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/PkevWIDG/)
SHOP may be in wave v of the rally since April. It could stretch towards $170, which is also the upper end of a long-term price channel.
5) ZS
Weekly Chart (https://www.tradingview.com/x/dw81aNbl/)
This is a long-term chart. ZS is likely in wave 3 of a bull cycle starting mid-2023. The price may double from here until the end of wave 3. The potential time horizon is 1-2 years.
