Hi YXI friends,

Yesterday was a broad risk-off session across the AI complex, and this week's chartbook reflects it.

Two of the breakdowns I was watching last week have now triggered.

Both dropped more than 7% in a single day.

The net result is one upgrade against three downgrades.

AVGO moves to overweight after completing S2 into the $320-350 target zone I flagged, while ARM, NBIS, and HUT go to underweight after each failed at or below its 50-day MA.

The extended uptrends across Semi Equipment and Hardware pulled back hard but did not break support, so those names stay neutral for now.

AI Infrastructure and Power is still the weakest corner of the book, with CRWV, IREN, OKLO, EQIX, and NRG all working through active sell-offs.

Overall, my stance has shifted from neutral with extended-rally risk to tactically cautious in the near term. Many charts now sit right on their key supports, and whether those levels hold this week will decide whether this is a healthy reset or the start of something bigger.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

Every chart gets a clear, scored label. Here's how to read them, so nothing is left to interpretation.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 13, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

SPY was rejected at the June high near $758 once again and is drifting back toward the rising 50-day MA near $741. The range remains intact, but the repeated failures at the top are starting to add up.

I remain neutral. It still takes a clean break above $758 to confirm the next leg higher.

A loss of the 50-day MA opens the S1.c sell-off toward the 100-day MA near $708. That remains the near-term risk I'm watching. 

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 13, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

QQQ has slipped just below its 50-day MA near $716, and the run of lower highs under the descending trendline keeps S1.b in progress.

I remain neutral. The $681 area, the 100% extension of S1.a, is the floor I'm watching.

A quick reclaim of the 50-day MA would steady the tape in the near term. Losing the $696-701 shelf would accelerate S1.b toward $681.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 13, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

IWM is testing the rising trendline and its 50-day MA near $289 again, still working through the S3 dip I flagged on Monday. The broader uptrend channel remains intact.

I remain neutral. Support is holding, but the bounces off this line are getting shallower.

Holding $288-289 keeps the uptrend alive. A break below it opens a deeper test toward the 100-day MA near $274.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

AMD fell over 4% yesterday but remains well above its 50-day MA near $486. The R2.b target at $630-650 is unchanged. It is both around the 100% of R2.a and the 150% extension of R1.

I remain neutral. The upside case is intact, but yesterday’s drop is a reminder of the two-way risk in a maturing R2. I still do not favour chasing.

A break below the 50-day MA near $486 would crack the R2 structure and turn me cautious. 

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (Upgrade)

AVGO's S2 has completed roughly 100% of S1, bottoming near $349. That is the top of the $320-350 target zone I flagged last week, where I said I was ready to upgrade.

I upgrade to overweight. If a new R2 has started here, 100% of R1 points to $600.

Price remains below the 50-day MA near $406, so the rebound still has work to do. A break below the $349 S2 low would mean the sell-off is not complete and would put me back to neutral. 

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

The head-and-shoulders I flagged last week has now triggered. MRVL broke the neckline and the 50-day MA near $233 in one move, falling almost 8% yesterday.

I remain underweight. The extended R2.b run is unwinding, and the distance to the 200-day MA near $127 shows how much air remains below.

The 100-day MA near $169 is the next meaningful support. A reclaim of the $233 neckline area would be needed to neutralise the damage.

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)

ARM's R2 breakout rally completed roughly 100% of R1 near $430 and is now breaking down. The price fell 7.5% yesterday, through the 50-day MA near $311.

I downgrade to underweight. Last week, the absence of a breakdown was the only thing keeping me at neutral. That condition has now been met.

The 100-day MA near $229 is the next support, with the top of the old 2-year consolidation below it. A reclaim of $311 would neutralise the breakdown.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

TSM's R2 stalled short of the $520 target, the 100% extension of R1, and has slipped just below the 50-day MA near $424. The uptrend itself is not in question yet.

I remain neutral. The 100-day MA near $391 has been the key support for this entire cycle. TSM hasn't touched its 200-day MA since H1 2025.

A hold of the 100-day MA keeps the R2 path toward $520 alive. A decisive break below it would be the first real crack in the trend.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

ASML's R2 pushed beyond the 100% extension of R1 near $1,752 and has now pulled back below that line. It remains above the 50-day MA near $1,690.

I remain neutral, as I was at the extension last week. The risk-reward is balanced here.

Holding the 50-day MA keeps the trend intact. A break below it would signal the R2 run is done for now. 

Price Structure: Uptrend, Exhaustion

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

MU's supercycle rally remains extended, and a potential head-and-shoulders is now forming at the top. The price has slipped back below $1,000 but is holding above the 50-day MA near $907.

I remain neutral. The uptrend structure is intact while the 50-day MA holds, but the topping risk I flagged is building. 

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

QCOM's head-and-shoulders breakdown is playing out as flagged. S2.b has completed 100% of S2.a, and the price remains well below the 50-day MA near $207.

I remain underweight. The sequence of sell-offs keeps pointing lower.

A potential S2.c targets $150, the 100% extension of S2.b.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

TXN remains in the range consolidation below the R3 high, and a potential double top is forming at the $333 area. The price sits right on the 50-day MA near $300.

I remain neutral. Last week, the bull-flag read gave the bulls the benefit of the doubt. The sideways action hasn't resolved that question yet.

The lower bound near $276 is the line. A break below it triggers the downgrade I flagged. A push above $333 resolves the range higher. 

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

The extreme extension I flagged last week is unwinding. INTC fell 6% yesterday and now sits below the 50-day MA near $117, but it's holding the horizontal shelf around $99-100.

I remain neutral. A rebound from this support could still form a head-and-shoulders right shoulder, so the structure isn't resolved yet.

Holding $99-100 keeps the rebound case alive. A break below the $94 area opens a deeper retracement toward the 100-day MA near $85.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

AMAT is pulling back from the extended R3 high, which reached 140% of R2. Support has not been breached. The price remains above the 50-day MA near $512 and the rising channel.

I remain neutral. The extension is being worked off through price rather than a breakdown so far.

Holding the channel and the 50-day MA keeps the uptrend intact. A break below $512 would change that read.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

LRCX remains the AMAT twin. R3 reached 150% of R2 before this pullback, and the price is now sitting right on the 50-day MA near $331 with the channel support just below.

I remain neutral. The uptrend is intact and the extension is unwinding in an orderly way.

The $311 area, the 125% extension, lines up with the channel support. A break below it would put the R3 run in question. 

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

KLAC has pulled back inside the long-term trend channel it broke above, the extended R3 run I flagged last week. The price remains above the 50-day MA near $214 and the $209 area, the 100% extension of the base.

I remain neutral. The pullback is a reset of the extension rather than a breakdown so far.

Holding $209-214 keeps the trend intact. A break below that zone opens a deeper retracement toward the channel midline.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

ANET keeps printing higher highs and higher lows. The R3 run is not parabolic, and the trend remains intact after yesterday’s dip.

I remain overweight. A repeat of R1 points to $216 in the near term, and a repeat of R2 would target $300.

The rising channel support and the 50-day MA near $161 are the levels that matter. A break below them would end the overweight case.

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

DELL's R3.b has run to near the 150% extension of R3.a at $451 and looks extended. The price remains above its key MAs, with the 50-day MA far below near $349.

I remain neutral. The distance to the moving averages shows how stretched this run is, but there is no breakdown signal yet.

A loss of the recent consolidation shelf around $410-420 would be the first warning. Until then the trend gets the benefit of the doubt.

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

The imminent hourly head-and-shoulders breakdown I was watching last week has not materialised. CSCO's R2.b remains extended at roughly 170% of R2.a, but the price is holding at the 150% extension near $119, above the 50-day MA near $114.

I remain neutral. Extended, but no trigger yet.

A break below the 50-day MA would set off the downgrade I flagged. Above it, the extension can keep grinding.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

WDC is testing the 50-day MA near $549, the level that has been the major support for this entire uptrend. Yesterday’s 4.6% drop puts the price right on it.

I remain neutral. The trend is intact while this line holds, and the pullback continues to ease the overbought pressure I noted last week.

A bounce off the 50-day MA keeps the uptrend on track. Below it, the danger zone is the 100-day MA near $430.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 7, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

SNDK fell over 12% yesterday, dropping just below the 50-day MA near $1,700. The move is violent, but this name has seen drawdowns of nearly 40% before without breaking the trend.

I remain neutral. This is the zone where I flagged a possible tactical long last week, but I want to see the price stabilise first given the volatility.

Holding this area keeps the uptrend intact. The danger zone is below the 100-day MA near $1,221. 

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

CRWV remains below all its key MAs, and the consolidation is not impulsively bullish. The price is now sitting just above the rising channel support near $80.

I remain underweight. The weakness I flagged last week is continuing.

A break below the channel triggers the potential S2, which targets $46 at the 100% extension. It takes a reclaim of the MAs near $99-106 to neutralise the picture.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)

NBIS has crossed decisively below its 50-day MA near $223, and R2 stalled at roughly 75% of R1. The last time this cross happened, in R1, the uptrend had already topped.

I downgrade to underweight. The same topping signal that ended R1 has now triggered for R2, and the chart suggests this run may have topped.

The $196 level is the first support below. A reclaim of the 50-day MA would invalidate the topping read and put me back to neutral. 

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

The double top I flagged last week has resolved lower. IREN remains below all its key MAs and S2 keeps grinding down, with the price now at the 61.8% retracement near $36.

I remain underweight. Further downside remains the path of least resistance after the MA break.

The next supports are $29 at the 78.6% retracement and $23 at the 100% extension. A reclaim of the MA cluster near $48-54 would change the picture.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

VRT's consolidation continues to mirror the Oct-Nov 2025 pattern, and the price is retesting the 100-day MA near $299, just as it did then. The smooth uptrend channel remains well defined.

I remain overweight. The repeat of that consolidation pattern argues for an upside resolution, which is the thesis from last week.

A decisive break below the 100-day MA and the channel support would invalidate the analogy and my stance with it.

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

EQIX is breaking below the $1,054 shelf that has held since May, and the price remains below the 50-day MA near $1,065. The 100-day MA near $1,030 is the last support in between.

I remain underweight. The breach of the 50- and 100-day MAs has led to further downside on previous occasions, and this potential breakdown fits that pattern.

If the breakdown completes, the $922-953 zone is the target area (i.e. high volume x the 200-day MA). A reclaim of $1,054 and the 50-day MA would neutralise the setup.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)

HUT's S3 pullback continues to unfold. The price has slipped below the 50-day MA near $109 and sits at the 50% extension of S1 near $100.

I now lean tactically underweight, as S3 could continue progressing within a broader uptrend channel after failing to reclaim the 50-day MA.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

VST remains stuck in the same broad, downward-tilting range. The price is pinned between the 50- and 100-day MAs near $154-157, with the descending resistance overhead near $166.

I remain neutral, unchanged from last week.

A break above the $166-167 resistance or below the range bottom near $131-136 is what changes the stance. Until then there is no edge.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

CEG bounced 2.5% yesterday but remains in the near-term downtrend, below the 50-day MA near $272. S2 has now covered roughly two thirds of S1's length, so the move is maturing.

I remain neutral. The sell-off is old enough that chasing it lower offers poor risk-reward, which is the same read as last week.

The $195 target, the 100% extension of S1, stays live if the downtrend resumes. Reclaiming the 50-day MA would suggest the sell-off has run its course.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

OKLO fell another 6% yesterday and remains well below all its key MAs. S2 completed 100% of S1, and S3 is now in progress, which is the downside risk I flagged after the trendline break.

I remain underweight. The path of least resistance is still lower.

The S3 target sits at $30, the 100% extension of S2. It takes a reclaim of the 50- and 100-day MAs near $61 to stop the bleeding.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

The rebound I was watching for last week didn't come. Instead, S2 has stretched to 125% of S1, with CCJ falling 6% yesterday to test the rising long-term trendline near $89-90, with RSI oversold at 31.

I remain neutral. The trendline and the oversold reading could still produce the bounce, but the price remains below all its key MAs.

A break below $89 opens $84, the 150% extension. The upgrade path still runs through reclaiming the 200-day MA near $104. 

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

GEV is hovering right at its 50-day MA near $1,038 after falling back through it, the topping-risk flag I raised last week. R3 has still only reached 75% of R2.

I remain neutral. The $1,480 target, the 100% extension of R2, stays on the table, but the repeated 50-day MA breaks keep me from leaning in.

Holding above $1,038 steadies the picture. Losing the 50% retracement near $896 would confirm a top.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

TLN bounced 2.7% yesterday and sits in the upper half of its wide range, above the 50- and 100-day MAs near $359-378. The upward tilt within the range remains.

I remain neutral until the range resolves, same as last week.

A breakout above $445 or a breakdown below $305 is what changes the stance.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

NRG is back up against the $141-146 support-turned-resistance zone, the same shelf that rejected it before. The price sits just above the 50-day MA near $137, but the S2 downtrend structure is intact.

I remain underweight. The S3 path toward $112-104 remains the base case while the price stays below that zone.

A clean break back above $146 triggers the upgrade to neutral I flagged last week.

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