Hi YXI friends,

For the Non-AI Infra sectors (I really need a good name for this aggregation of stocks!), there were three ratings changes this week. We also start coverage on seven new names across Energy, Metals & Mining, and Space.

Upgrades: PLTR and ETH move to Neutral. The tactical underweight on PLTR from July 8 played out, with the stock pulling back to the bottom of its channel before reclaiming the 50-day MA. ETH broke above the June high while holding its 50-day MA, which changes the bear-flag read from Monday.

Downgrade: INTU moves to Underweight. The rebound stalled at the underside of the broken trendline and rolled over, and the risk-reward now favours the downside toward the S2 target near $206. Note I like the business fundamentals, but the market stays very pessimistic in the near term.

On watch, but unchanged. APP stays overweight after losing the $516 battlefield line, but the bias is looking thin. A failure to rally back next week would push me to neutral. MA stays underweight, though its move above the 200-day MA means my conviction is thinning. I am ready to upgrade if it breaks out of its downtrend price channel.

New coverage: XOM, CVX, and LNG in Energy, NEM and FCX in Metals & Mining, and RKLB and ASTS in Space. All start at neutral except FCX, where I am tactically overweight on the retest of a multi-year range breakout.

The overall read:

Cybersecurity is the standout, with CRWD, PANW, and ZS all posting strong gains yesterday and no breakdowns to fade.

The extended software winners, SNOW and DDOG, are pressing higher, but legacy software (ORCL, CRM, ADBE, INTU) continues to bleed toward its sell-off targets.

The indices sit in the middle: SPY, QQQ, and IWM remain neutral and range-bound, with SPY still capped below $758.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

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Every chart gets a clear, scored label. Here's how to read them, so nothing is left to interpretation.

The three-factor read on Tuesday, July 14, 2026 flipped decisively back to risk-on. Risk appetite printed +0.53z, liquidity +0.44z, and inflation +0.50z.

My read is this is a Risk-On + Hard-Assets regime with a softer dollar. The rising inflation z-score alongside firm liquidity favours real assets and cyclicals over duration.

But I would treat the one-day bounce with some caution given how volatile these factors have been over the past week. This is especially true as we see lower highs and lower lows in the Risk z-score.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

SPY was rejected at the June high near $758, but the pullback has been shallow. Price closed at $752 yesterday, holding above the rising 50-day MA near $741.

I remain neutral. The range is intact, and a clean break above $758 is still needed to confirm the next leg higher.

A loss of the 50-day MA opens the S1.c sell-off toward the 100-day MA near $709. That remains the near-term risk I'm watching.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

QQQ reclaimed its 50-day MA near $717 with a 1.1% bounce yesterday, closing at $720. That was the quick reclaim I flagged on Tuesday, and it steadies the tape in the near term.

I remain neutral. The run of lower highs under the descending trendline keeps S1.b in progress, so this bounce needs to clear that line to change the structure.

Losing the $697-702 shelf would put S1.b back in motion toward $681, the 100% extension of S1.a. 

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 14, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

IWM held the rising trendline and its 50-day MA near $289 once more and bounced to $294.5. The S3 dip is playing out as flagged, with the broader uptrend channel intact.

I remain neutral. The bounces off this line have been getting shallower, so I want to see a stronger follow-through before turning constructive.

Holding $288-289 keeps the uptrend alive. A break below it opens a deeper test toward the 100-day MA near $274.

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)

PLTR pulled back from the 50-day MA to the bottom of its descending channel near $111, then bounced 2.8% yesterday to close at $134, back above the 50-day MA. S2 may have ended there, having reached 80% of S1.

I upgrade to neutral. The tactical underweight from July 8 was a mean-reversion bet, and that pullback has now played out. But the stock is below its 100- and 200-day MAs, so this is a rebound within a downtrend, not yet a bullish structure.

Reclaiming the 100-day MA near $139 would strengthen the recovery case.

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

ORCL's head-and-shoulders neckline break is now confirmed, with the stock falling another 2.7% yesterday to $128. Price sits between the 67% and 75% extensions of S1 at $133 and $123.

I remain underweight. S2 continues to unfold below all the major MAs, and the 100% extension near $97 is the completion target I flagged last week.

Only a decisive reclaim of the broken neckline, now overhead resistance, would change the read.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

CRM fell another 2.1% yesterday to $168, sitting right at the 50% extension of S3 near $166. Price is below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day MAs, and the downtrend channel from the 2025 high is intact.

I remain underweight. S3 continues to unfold, and the $130 target I flagged last week, where S3 replicates S1 and S2, still stands.

A reclaim of the 50- and 100-day MAs at $172-179 would be the first sign the sell-off is done. 

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

NOW dropped 5.8% yesterday to $105, but the pullback has so far held above the 50- and 100-day MAs near $103. The 50-day MA crossing over the 100-day MA keeps the potential bullish path alive.

I remain neutral. The rebound needs to survive this test and go on to reclaim the 200-day MA near $130 before I can call it an uptrend. A potential S3 is not ruled out.

Losing the $102-103 MA shelf would put that S3 scenario in motion and push me to underweight. 

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

SNOW rallied another 2.7% yesterday to $276. R2 is pressing on without clear sub-rallies, now within reach of the 100% extension of R1 near $310.

I remain neutral. The run is currently more than 30% above the 50-day MA near $215, and the gap around $200 I flagged on July 8 is still open below. But there is no sign of a breakdown to fade.

The $310 area is the natural completion zone for R2. If a pullback starts, the 75% extension near $243 is the first support I'm watching.

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

DDOG jumped 4% yesterday to $271, clearing the 100% extension of R1 at $265 that I called a natural pausing point last week.

I remain neutral. R3s in other names have gone parabolic toward the 125-150% extensions, $340-436 here, so I'm not fading the strength. But chasing at this distance above the 50-day MA near $226 offers poor risk-reward.

A break of the 50-day MA would be the first sign of exhaustion and would push me toward a downgrade.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight (Downgrade)

INTU's rebound stalled at the underside of the broken trendline near $290 and rolled over, falling 2.5% yesterday to $282. Price sits below all the major MAs.

I downgrade to underweight. This is the trigger I set out last week: the rebound has run its course, and the risk-reward now favours the downside toward the S2 target near $206, the 100% extension of S1.

Reclaiming the 50-day MA near $315 would invalidate this read and send me back to neutral.

Note that my latest fundamental analysis suggests that INTU is undervalued based on its business metrics, but its price technicals are facing significant headwinds.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

ADBE fell another 4.3% yesterday to $221, slipping below the 100% extension of the S2.c ladder at $237. The three-stage sell-off continues, with S2.c reached a low around 135% of the prior leg.

I remain underweight. The capitulation run toward $178, the 150% extension I flagged last week, is still in progress.

A decisive reclaim of the 50- and 100-day MAs at $232-241 would shift me back to neutral.

In terms of the business fundamentals, ADBE appears undervalued (like INTU), but the price technicals here are not favourable in the short-term. 

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

CRWD surged 12.1% yesterday to $211. The second sub-leg of Rally 2 has now reached 90% of the first, with the 100% extension near $235 overhead.

I remain neutral. The run is getting extended after a move this sharp, but there is no sign of a breakdown to fade, and I don't short strength in an intact uptrend.

The $235 area is the completion zone I'm watching. A rejection there that breaks the steep trendline would be the first signal to turn cautious.

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

PANW jumped 6.8% yesterday to $353, continuing the parabolic R2 advance I flagged last week. The 100% extension of R1 near $404 is the next major objective.

I remain neutral. The advance is steep and increasingly extended, so chasing here offers poor risk-reward, but there is still no sign of a breakdown.

Parabolic runs can end abruptly. A break of the steep trendline would be the first warning.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

NET rallied 4.5% yesterday to $282, clearing the 50% extension of R3 at $272. R4 continues to track the R1=R2=R3 pattern, which points to $460 at full replication.

I remain overweight. The tactical case from July 8 is playing out, with R4 making steady progress up the ladder.

A break back below the 200-day MA, would weaken the R4 thesis and send me back to neutral.

Price Structure: Uptrend, Extended

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

FTNT gained 3.9% yesterday to $167, pushing R2 to >90% of R1. The 100% extension near $178 is the natural completion zone overhead.

I remain neutral. The rally is steep and well above the 50-day MA near $137, and with the measured objective this close, the risk-reward does not favour chasing.

A push through $178 that holds would open the 125% extension near $226. A break of the 50-day MA would signal exhaustion and may push me toward a downgrade. 

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

ZS jumped 7.2% yesterday to $152, pressing toward the 50% extension of R1 near $155. The breakout and retest of the downtrend channel continues to play out.

I remain overweight. The R2 target of $200, the 100% extension of R1, still stands, and it lines up with the falling 200-day MA as the major test.

A break back below $120 would invalidate the R2 thesis and send me back to neutral. 

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

NFLX slipped another 0.4% yesterday to $73.5 and sits just above the head-and-shoulders neckline, below all the major MAs. The structure is not bullish, but the neckline continues to hold.

I remain neutral. The bullish case rests on the larger structure replicating the left shoulder's path, which was itself a mini H&S that held its neckline and went on to a new high.

A close below the neckline would confirm the H&S breakdown and push me to underweight.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

UBER fell 2.9% yesterday to $72, slipping just below the 50- and 100-day MAs near $73. The broad range that has held since 2024 is intact, with price in its lower half.

I remain tactically overweight, expecting a rebound within the range. The setup is unchanged from last week.

The danger is a range breakdown. A close below the rising range floor near $67-68 would push me back to neutral or underweight.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

APP has lost the $516 battlefield line I flagged last week, closing at $449 despite a 1.4% bounce yesterday. Price is below all the major MAs, working into the lower half of the range. This means the Overweight bias is looking thin, with a potential downtrade to neutral if APP fails to rally back next week.

A break below the rising channel support near $400 would push me to neutral, and a further break below the Q1 low would push me to underweight.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

BKNG eased 0.5% yesterday to $175 after a strong bounce off the channel support near $150. Price is back above the 50- and 100-day MAs at $169-171 but below the 200-day MA near $187.

I remain neutral. The head-and-shoulders risk has not gone away, but the channel support continues to hold, and the near-term reversal I flagged has already played out without breaking the structure.

A drop below the channel support would confirm the H&S breakdown and push me to underweight.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

TTD fell another 4.3% yesterday to $19, continuing to bleed below all the major MAs. The count is still unclear: this could be a separate S3, which would target below $8 at 100% of S2, or simply an extended S2 that could terminate soon.

I remain neutral, in line with my July 8 note. Cheap can get cheaper in a bear market and I don't catch knives, but I also won't press an already extended sell-off.

A reclaim of the 50-day MA near $20 would be the first stabilisation signal. Losing $16, the 50% extension, deepens the S3 path.

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Overweight (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight

RDDT added 1.2% yesterday to $203, back above all the major MAs. R3 is working toward the 50% extension of R2 near $218.

I remain overweight. The R3 path toward $400+, a full replication of R2, is intact.

The caveat from last week stands: if R3 stalls short of the 67% extension near $270 and rolls over, a head-and-shoulders top becomes the risk. Below the 100-day MA near $160, I would step back to neutral.

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 8, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

DUOL pulled back 3% yesterday to $128, easing off after breaking out of the downtrend channel. The 50-day MA has crossed over the 100-day MA, but there has been no retest yet to set up a bullish entry.

I remain neutral. This dip could become the retest I've been waiting for, and its shape will decide the next move.

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 13, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (Upgrade)

I am updating ETH today due to the bias upgrade.

ETH has broken above the June high and is holding the 50-day MA near $1,746, closing at $1,883 yesterday. On Monday, I called this a bear flag. The break above the June high starts to reduce those odds but not eliminate them.

I upgrade to neutral. The breakout and the hold of the 50-day MA are enough to step off the underweight, and I'm now watching how price interacts with the 100-day MA near $2,005 overhead.

A bearish repeat of March 2026, where a push above the prior high failed, cannot be ruled out. A loss of the 50-day MA and the middle of the sideways channel would send me back to underweight.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

COIN bounced 2.6% yesterday to $161.5 after another test of the head-and-shoulders neckline. The 20-month pattern continues to hold at support.

I remain neutral. The neckline has now survived multiple tests, but the price is below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day MAs, so this is not a bullish structure yet.

A close below the neckline near $140 would confirm the breakdown and push me to underweight. Reclaiming the 50- and 100-day MAs at $174-181 would ease the downside risk. 

Price Structure: Breakdown

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

MSTR bounced 5.9% yesterday to $97.6, but the head-and-shoulders breakdown I flagged last week stands. The rally back to the neckline was rejected, and price sits around the 50% extension of the measured move.

I remain underweight. Breakdown plus rejection is bearish behaviour, and the 67% and 75% extensions at $58-66 are the next markers below.

Only a reclaim of the broken neckline would change the read. Below it, I treat rallies as bear-market bounces. 

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

HOOD jumped 3.3% yesterday to $113, pressing into the resistance confluence I flagged last week at the old neckline and channel boundary. The 50-day MA crossing over the 100-day MA has historically confirmed a bullish trend in this name.

I remain neutral, but this is the test. A clean break and hold above the confluence would trigger an upgrade, with R4 pointing toward $300 at full replication of R2.

A rejection here keeps the range intact. Back below the 50-day MA near $91, the rebound thesis fades. 

Price Structure: Range

Previous YX TA Bias: Neutral (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral

V eased 0.5% yesterday to $356 after reclaiming all three major MAs at $320-331. S2 retraced only a third of R2, shallow but sufficient.

I remain neutral. It is unclear whether S2 has finished, and I need to see new highs above $370 to confirm the next leg higher.

A push to new highs would turn me constructive. A rollover back below the MAs would signal the volatile consolidation I flagged is extending.

Price Structure: Rebound

Previous YX TA Bias: Underweight (July 9, 2026)

Current YX TA Bias: Underweight

MA has broken out of the falling price channel and reclaimed all three major MAs, including the 200-day at $527, closing flat yesterday at $538.

My concern last week was an unfinished S2 pointing to $404. As long as the downtrend price channel stays intact, the main expectation is mean reversion within the channel.

However, moving above the 200-day MA has increased the odds that S2 has ended, even after retracing only a third of R2. This means my Underweight conviction is thinning, and I am ready to upgrade if MA can break out of its price channel. 

Price Structure: Downtrend, Stabilising

Previous YX TA Bias: None

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (New)

XOM is in a downtrend from the April high, with S1b having reached 90% of S1a before the current bounce. Price has rallied back to the resistance shelf near $142-146, where the falling 50-day MA also sits.

I start at neutral. The sell-off looks stabilised after S1b nearly replicated S1a, but the 50- and 100-day MAs at $146-150 are still overhead, so this is a rebound into resistance for now.

A clean reclaim of $146-150 would turn the read constructive. A rejection here followed by a break below $134 resumes the downtrend toward $131, the 100% extension.

Price Structure: Downtrend, Stabilising

Previous YX TA Bias: None

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (New)

CVX completed a full S1b replication of S1a near $164 and has rebounded to $182, right at the falling 50-day MA and the 50% level of the sell-off.

I start at neutral. The sell-off looks complete after the 100% replication, but the broader structure is still a downtrend.

A break above the 100-day MA near $186 would turn the read more positive. A rejection here and a loss of $174, the 67% level, would argue the downtrend is resuming.

Price Structure: Uptrend

Previous YX TA Bias: None

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (New)

LNG is in a long-term uptrend channel dating back to 2022 and has reclaimed all three major MAs, closing at $265 yesterday. The pullback from the $300 spike found support around the 200-day MA.

I start at neutral. The trend is up, but the range is wide and volatile, which makes entries unforgiving.

Holding above the 50- and 100-day MAs at $243-252 keeps the move back toward the $300 high alive. Losing the 200-day MA would point to another swing toward the channel floor.

Price Structure: Downtrend

Previous YX TA Bias: None

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (New)

NEM completed R3 at 125% of R2 near $137 in March and has been correcting since, now below all three major MAs. The bounce to $95 yesterday came off a key support line that has held every test so far.

I start at neutral. The breakdown danger is real with price below the MAs, but I won't front-run it while support continues to hold.

A close below support near $90 would confirm the breakdown and make me underweight. Reclaiming the 50- and 200-day MAs at $103-104 would steady the read.

Price Structure: Breakout

Previous YX TA Bias: None

Current YX TA Bias: Overweight (New)

FCX is potentially breaking out of a multi-year range. After the initial push to $70+, price has come back to retest the range top and bounced 3.3% yesterday to $62.

I am tactically overweight. A retest of a multi-year breakout offers favourable risk-reward, with the invalidation sitting just below the 200-day MA.

Reclaiming the 50- and 100-day MAs at $62-63 would confirm the retest has held. A close back inside the old range would invalidate the breakout and send me to neutral.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: None

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (New)

RKLB has pulled back hard from the R3 top, where R3 reached about 80% of R2, and is sitting on the rising 200-day MA at $77, which lines up with the price channel support. It bounced 2.7% yesterday off that shelf.

I start at neutral. The 200-day MA has served as key support multiple times in this uptrend, but price is below the 50- and 100-day MAs, so the near-term breakdown risk is real.

A hold here followed by a reclaim of the 100-day MA near $90 would improve the risk-reward. A close below the 200-day MA and the channel would break the uptrend and make me underweight.

Price Structure: Pullback

Previous YX TA Bias: None

Current YX TA Bias: Neutral (New)

ASTS is testing the lower half of its long-term uptrend channel after forming a potential head-and-shoulders top. It closed at $69 yesterday, below all three major MAs at $83-86.

I start at neutral. The multi-year uptrend gets the benefit of the doubt while the channel support holds, but the H&S risk keeps me from being constructive here.

A close below the channel support would confirm the breakdown and make me underweight. Reclaiming the MAs at $83-86 would neutralise the pattern.

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