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- When All-Time High? Plus Non Farm Payrolls Review
When All-Time High? Plus Non Farm Payrolls Review
Daily Update on SPY, QQQ, TLT, USO, BTC, COIN, Mag-7, Gold, PLTR
Yimin Xu
June 09, 2025
Hi YXI friends,
The market’s relentless push towards the all-time-high continued after Friday’s estimate-beating Nonfarm Payrolls. The all-time-high is now well within our grasp.
However, the next 20 days face a much more challenging seasonality backdrop than the last 20 days. Can the market just get it done before the next pullback?
If you are looking for our Systematic Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA (free), PLTR (free).
Let’s dive in!
Table of Contents
DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
0. YXI Daily Dashboard
The Three Daily Observations
Fed Liquidity, G5 M2 Money Supply, and DXY all point to loosening financial conditions for risk assets over the past 1 month.
Nonfarm Payrolls remain robust, providing little reason for Fed to cut.
Equities and Bitcoin were risk-on into the weekend, although TSLA’s bounce was insignificant compared with Thursday’s drop.
Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.
1. Nonfarm Payrolls
US Nonfarm Payrolls vs Unemployment Rate
Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls delivered another expectation-beating report, with the net new jobs added reaching 139k in May. This was the 7th 100k+ report in a row. It should certainly diffuse some market worries over the recessionary impact of the tariffs so far. However, some will highlight the lagged effect of Trump’s policy uncertainties. There was also a near-100k downward revision for April and March numbers in total.
Unemployment rate stayed at 4.2% in May. In the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has oscillated between 4% and 4.2%. Contrast this with the Fed’s own pessimistic forecast for the year end at 4.7%.
The new jobs in May mostly came from Health care and Leisure sectors. They more than offset a flat month in Government and the job losses in Manufacturing and Professional services.
Overall, the Fed should feel relaxed about the labour market right now. The latest data continue to confirm their “normalisation” thesis over the deterioration concerns.
No cuts needed soon!
2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)
SPDW is updated every Monday.
The Nonfarm Payrolls data alleviated some recessionary concerns, helping SPY inch closer to the all time high. However, SPY has not yet moved into our target 1.382 level ($607), which below the major resistance trend line.
The only thing that stands between us and the all-time-high in SPY is seasonality.
SPY Seasonality, 20-years
The next 20 days - June 9 to June 29 - are seasonally weak in the past 20 years.
How I think about seasonality is like the general direction of the wind in the background. One can still fly against that wind, but it’s just a bit slowing and more difficult, compared with a seasonally strong period like mid-October to mid-November, all else equal.
This means one should be on their feet a bit more and cautious in chasing new trades due to FOMO.
QQQ sits right below the resistance trend line, unable to push past it on Friday. To me, the big gains are had, and I am patiently waiting for the wave (iv) retrace, which could retest the 200-day EMA.
SPDW continues to make new highs, although at a very small increments each day. It is approaching the upper bound of the multi-year channel.
What I find interesting is how long its RSI stays at the overbought level.
We have not yet seen an RSI divergence (lower highs on the RSI while higher highs in the price), but I suspect that will come before the near-term top.
3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures
FOMC Projections
We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.
FOMC Date | Before Meeting | Post Meeting | Hike/ Cut in % |
|---|---|---|---|
06/11/25 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 0 |
07/30/25 | 4.33 | 4.23 | -0.1 |
09/17/25 | 4.23 | 4.13 | -0.1 |
11/05/25 | 4.13 | 3.98 | -0.15 |
12/17/25 | 3.98 | 3.88 | -0.1 |
01/28/26 | 3.88 | 3.78 | -0.1 |
03/18/26 | 3.78 | 3.68 | -0.1 |
05/06/26 | 3.68 | 3.58 | -0.1 |
06/17/26 | 3.58 | 3.48 | -0.1 |
There were no changes in the Fed funds pricing of FOMCs overnight. The market sees 3 cuts in the next 12 months.
3-month SOFR Futures Yields
4. Summary Of Today’s YXI Signals
SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR
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