Hi YXI friends,

Last week’s bullish moves in risk assets bode well for the stock market having potentially bottomed on April 7th. A lot of my bearish expectations have now been replaced with more bullish outlooks near term.

In this service, we focus on delivering a combination of macro liquidity, quantitative modelling analysis, valuation, and technical analysis for SPY, QQQ, TLT, BTC, and Mag-7.

For those looking for Model Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on TSLA (free), BTC, AAPL, AMZN and TLT. We also show them in the main content below.

Service Changes: I am dropping the “opportunistic trade setup” section, while maintaining the existing trades until they finish. I understand that you may be disappointed at this scope reduction. This is because I want to dedicate my time and energy exclusively to winning in the core coverage area of SPY, QQQ, TLT, BTC, and Mag-7s.

This includes developing quant models for all of them over time, offering my subscribers a measurable edge. This approach offers much higher value and conviction than opportunistic setups from non-core names. Here I want to say a huge THANK YOU to my subscribers who have stuck with my content changes over time.

Housekeeping: I am travelling this week and may be slow in responding to questions.

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Daily Dashboard

  • Observations from today

  • SPY and QQQ Charts

• 2. TLT

• 3. Bitcoin

• 4. Magnificent 7

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 5. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 6. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Daily Dashboard

Observations from today

1. Risk asset remained modestly bid (higher) on Friday, with Gold / GLD still under pressure. The trend of Gold vs everything else continues.

2. Bond yields retraced further on Friday, with 2Y10Y spread flattening.

3. QQQ is showing stronger relative strength than SPY or IWM.

4. Tesla rallied by 9.8% on Friday, significantly outpacing the Mag-7 peers, including NVDA (+4.3%) and Meta (+2.7%)

SPY and QQQ Charts

The primary expectations are inked in black.

The alternative expectations are inked in red, where relavent

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/aYrgmOOF/)

SPY broke above its April 9 high and the trend line on Friday. This is of course bullish.

I have removed the previous bearish expectations and now inked our (previously) bullish alternative as the primary path.

Looking ahead, SPY faces the immediate selling pressure at $470-490 with large volumes that bought in March just under the 200 EMA. It needs to get above the 200 EMA before we consider the possibility of a new ATH near term.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/DWQGL4SA/)

QQQ has also broken above its April 9 high and the trend line. We now place the previously bullish alternative as our main expectation.

QQQ needs to challenge the 200 EMA next, but faces large selling pressure at $470-490 from those who bought in March.

📣 We have SPY and QQQ daily model signals coming soon. Stay Tuned!

2. TLT

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

The Fed Funds futures were much unchanged overnight. The next rate cut is expected for June.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

YXI TLT Model Strategy Signal

For greater explanations on how the model strategies work, please see my separate morning note dedicated to the Daily Model Signals (TSLA signals are free).

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