Hi YXI friends,

I am in the process of building out our complete list for the weekly TA coverage. While creating this list, I will assess whether each name is worth covering and whether I have any strong reads to provide value.

Please feel free to put in the comments/feedback question at the end on which name you enjoy, but also, more importantly, what I should drop from the list. A more succinct list => more focus => better accuracy.

I am also tracking my “YX TA Bias” readings over time to build a track record of my call accuracy and to diagnose what I missed (or whether I should not cover a particular ticker). More on this soon, but this will be a very distinct feature vs other services, where calls are untracked or cherry-picked to look good in hindsight.

I was not able to finish the Data Centre and Power tickers today, so I will continue them on Thursday. Apologies for this delay.

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

Every chart gets a clear, scored label. Here's how to read them, so nothing is left to interpretation.

Please bear in mind that “Neutral” does not mean Bearish (in case you are too accustomed to the Sell-side perma-bull classifications, where anything not “overweight” means bearish). It just means I don’t see a strong upside setup relative to the downside risk.

Price Structure: Long-term Extended Uptrend, Short-term Range

YX Bias: Neutral

Long-term view (weekly chart)

I want to visualise where we are in the long-term market cycle first. Since the 2023 bull market, SPY has spent most of the time on the upper end of the price channel (from 2024 onwards). The mid-channel line has served as a reliable support for the dip buyers with the exception of the Liberation Day capitulation.

However, since the US-Iran ceasefire, the market has accelerated in its uptrend. There have been two justifications for this: the robust EPS growth reported in Q2 (of Q1 results) and the AI bottleneck trade - Semis, memory, and storage etc.

While both justifications appear perfectly rational, the market has clearly stretched into more extended territory relative to the broader bullish trend over the past 3 years.

Short-term View

We saw a breakout on Monday that puts SPY close to the ATH. I want to see a follow-through today to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

The risk here is that, because S1 (S1.a + S1.b) was quite shallow (about ¼ of R1), we could get another sell-off to further digest the R1 run.

Price Structure: Range

YX Bias: Neutral

QQQ continues to trade in a range, with the key risk being mean reversion into a deeper S1.b selloff.

Price Structure: Uptrend

YX Bias: Neutral

 I spent some time re-examining the chart for IWM today. It is difficult to break down this chart into sub-movements. However, from the 2025 low, it is clearly in a bullish trend, with the price only very occasionally dipping into the lower half of the price channel.

Our MS model is very bullish on IWM. I am “neutral” only in the sense that yields have been rising in the past week despite the sustained decline in Oil. I want to upgrade to overweight if/when IWM finds an attractive dip amid higher yields.