Hi YXI friends,

The 2-day meeting of FOMC commences today, with its outcome announced tomorrow. There is virtually zero chance of a rate cut, as the Fed patiently observes more data around inflation in the coming months.

To recap, the Fed deems a number of possible outcomes from the latest tariffs, which could require cuts, or no change, or even hikes.

Powell has stood firm to Trump’s pressure so far. However, back in 2019, during the first Trade War alongside Trump’s rate-cut rhetorics, the Fed 1) announced an explicit stop to the rate hiking cycle and 2) reduced rates pre-emptively in the summer.

The notable difference was that back in 2019, inflation was sub-2%, below the Fed’s target. Today, PCE is a percentage hotter.

Premium subscriptions unlock all of our ML-model signals, our proprietary ratings for each risk asset, and our daily macro notes covering equities, oil, rates, crypto, Gold, Mag-7s, SOXX and PLTR.

If you are looking for our Systematic Signals directly, you can find them in our dedicated morning note on SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA (free), PLTR (free).

Please check out our glossary for explaining the acronyms, financial terminology, and economic data.

Let’s dive in!

Table of Contents

• 1. YXI Dashboard

• 2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

• 3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

• 4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

• 5. USO

• 6. 30-Year Treasury Yield & TLT

• 7. Bitcoin (BTC) & Coinbase (COIN)

• 8. Gold (GLD, GDX)

• 9. Magnificent 7 Stocks

  • Apple

  • Amazon

  • Alphabet

  • Meta

  • Microsoft

  • Nvidia

  • Tesla

• 10. Other

  • SOXX

  • PLTR

• 11. Trade Updates & Monitoring

• 12. Notable ETF Flows From Previous Day

DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is strictly educational. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

1. YXI Dashboard

Oil surged sharply on Monday, as +3.1% equates to 1.5 standard deviations from its 1-year volatility mean.

Everything else is fairly muted. NVDA made an impressive new high, while TSLA recovered its post-earnings dip.

Click here for the past YXI article explaining many of the components of the dashboard.

2. SPY, QQQ, (SPDW)

SPDW is updated every Monday.

SPY (https://www.tradingview.com/x/MDVl5wEH/)

There has not been a wall to stop the market rally so far. That puts FOMC and the major tech earnings as risk events.

QQQ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/bMhuoArw/)

QQQ stretches to the 200% extension. I am wary of a pullback from here.

3. FOMC Projections & Rates Futures

FOMC Projections

We use the Fed Funds futures market to understand the market expectations of future FOMC interest rate decisions.

The market see no chance of a cut this week, but the Fed could move in September.

If they don’t do September either, they HAVE TO revise their Dot Plot down to 1 cut this year.

3-month SOFR Futures Yields

4. Summary Of Today’s 4-3-2-1 Ratings

SPY, QQQ, BTC, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR, TLT

Tired of Market Noise? Find Your Signal.