Hi YXI friends,
Please review today’s chart analysis of SPY, TSLA, BTC, BMNR, GLD, and NFLX.
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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended for educational purposes only. Any information or analysis in this note does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice, nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
Table of Contents
1) S&P 500 (SPY ETF)
My note from last Friday, before I rushed off to the airport, highlighted that SPY’s decline was within our bottoming region for wave (c) of 4.
Luckily (or maybe just good? 😉), the market has bounced off strongly since then to confirm our thesis.
Last week’s bounce, 5 consecutive green days, likely forms the basis of our wave i of 5. A subsequent decline, which may start from today but let’s try not to time it perfectly, could be a wave ii pullback within wave 5. Wave ii can find its way to the 0.236 - 0.382 retrace of wave i, which brings us around the $660 region.
The next pullback could therefore create a i-ii setup for the rest of wave 5 into early 2026.
2) TSLA
TSLA finds it challenging to move past the high-volume profile region at the 50-day MA. If it turns down with the broader market from here, we could see a i-ii setup for the final wave (v) past the all-time high.
TSLA Machine Learning Signal
TSLA’s ML model has switched to Risk On today, after many days of being Risk Off in the previous week.
3) Bitcoin
Bitcoin has reached a similar drawdown to the Feb-Apr pullback.
My ideal scenario is for the November low to hold and for this pullback to form a i-ii setup. But there is a good chance that we simultaneously see a lower low in price, but a higher low in the RSI, forming a bullish divergence like in April.
At this juncture, I prefer doing less preempting and more waiting for the market to reveal its hand.
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5) BMNR
The optimistic case for BMNR is that a pullback into the 200-day MA (red line) helps form a wave ii retrace. This may set up for a wave iii rally next towards $50.
However, if we get a new low from here, the i-ii setup would be invalidated, and we have to restart in our expectation for the next wave i. Please do manage expectations.
6) GLD
If Bitcoin is the digital Gold, that makes Gold the physical Bitcoin.
From the price action of Gold this year, it’s hard to tell that we are not trading crypto. It’s been a leading liquidity indicator and now returning 60% YTD - and yes, you are still not getting future free cash flows from it.
I am growing confident that GLD is moving in wave circle-iii of 5, the completion of which likely marks the top of this cycle. Do ignore the timing presented on the chart, as we are primarily focusing on the price levels here.
7) NFLX
NFLX has retraced into the deeper end of our wave C of 4 target. However, I do like the risk-reward from here. NFLX rallied in January 2023, 2024 and 2025. There is a seasonal bullish pattern after the Christmas blockbuster period.
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